Happy Valley · 2024-09-18
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-09-18 was Class 4 over 1200m. PERFECT GENERAL, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with CHATEAUNEUF second and SHINKANSEN third. The 2.3 favourite CHATEAUNEUF finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | PERFECT GENERAL TT 1.09.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 5 | 4.5 | N |
| 2 | 2 | CHATEAUNEUF B1/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 1 | 2.3 | N |
| 3 | 8 | SHINKANSEN H/SR/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 4 | 20.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | GIMME FIVE K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 6 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | TELECOM POWER B K De Melo · Y S Tsui | K De Melo | Y S Tsui | 8 | 137.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | HAPPY DAY B/TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 2 | 21.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | JUDY'S GREAT TT Y L Chung · C S Shum | Y L Chung | C S Shum | 7 | 58.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | YODA'S CHOICE CP/TT M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 9 | 28.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | GIANT LEAP B A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 3 | 3.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | CHATEAUNEUF | 34.4% | 2.91 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | GIANT LEAP | 21.1% | 4.74 | 9 |
| 3 | 5 | PERFECT GENERAL | 18.6% | 5.37 | 1 |
| 4 | 8 | SHINKANSEN | 7.3% | 13.68 | 3 |
| 5 | 7 | GIMME FIVE | 6.4% | 15.73 | 4 |
| 6 | 1 | HAPPY DAY | 4.8% | 20.71 | 6 |
| 7 | 9 | YODA'S CHOICE | 4.0% | 24.80 | 8 |
| 8 | 4 | JUDY'S GREAT | 2.0% | 49.26 | 7 |
| 9 | 6 | TELECOM POWER | 1.3% | 76.75 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 45
PLACE
2 10.5
5 16
8 33
QUINELLA
2,5 53
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 21.5
2,8 63.5
5,8 106
FORECAST
5,2 125
TIERCE
5,2,8 1,005
TRIO
2,5,8 249
FIRST 4
2,5,7,8 365
QUARTET
5,2,8,7 6,148