Happy Valley · 2024-09-18
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-09-18 was Class 4 over 1200m. GOLDEN LUCK, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K L Man, won by 3/4, with HAPPY SOUL second and WOOD ON FIRE third. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | GOLDEN LUCK XB/TT 1.10.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · K L Man | L Hewitson | K L Man | 5 | 2.8 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | HAPPY SOUL CP/TT K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 1 | 8.5 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 9 | WOOD ON FIRE V/TT H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 3 | 13.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 10 | YOUNG HORIZON CP M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 7 | 6.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | UNISON CP1/XB1/TT1 B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 2 | 9.5 | 2 |
| 6 | 2 | HAPPY TRIO B K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 9 | 7.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 1 | LIGHTNING BOLT TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 8 | 20.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 7 | SO TREASURE B- L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 6 | 9.8 | 6 |
| 9 | 8 | TOGEPI CP1/TT A Hamelin · W K Mo | A Hamelin | W K Mo | 10 | 38.0 | 8 |
| 10 | 5 | SAVVY CHIC V-/TT H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 4 | 9.9 | 16-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SO TREASURE | 18.0% | 5.55 | 8 |
| 2 | 3 | HAPPY SOUL | 16.2% | 6.19 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | SAVVY CHIC | 12.5% | 8.00 | 10 |
| 4 | 10 | YOUNG HORIZON | 11.4% | 8.73 | 4 |
| 5 | 4 | GOLDEN LUCK | 10.8% | 9.24 | 1 |
| 6 | 2 | HAPPY TRIO | 8.4% | 11.95 | 6 |
| 7 | 1 | LIGHTNING BOLT | 7.5% | 13.37 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | WOOD ON FIRE | 5.9% | 17.04 | 3 |
| 9 | 8 | TOGEPI | 5.3% | 18.85 | 9 |
| 10 | 6 | UNISON | 4.0% | 24.77 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 28
PLACE
3 23
4 13.5
9 36
QUINELLA
3,4 118.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 46
3,9 122
4,9 82
FORECAST
4,3 190
TIERCE
4,3,9 1,566
TRIO
3,4,9 409
FIRST 4
3,4,9,10 551
QUARTET
4,3,9,10 8,638
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
5/3 52.5
5/4 186.5
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,8/3,4,9 10,839