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Happy Valley · 2024-09-18

Race 2

Class 4 1200m Course B 10 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-09-18 was Class 4 over 1200m. GOLDEN LUCK, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K L Man, won by 3/4, with HAPPY SOUL second and WOOD ON FIRE third. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.06
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 GOLDEN LUCK XB/TT 1.10.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · K L Man 5 2.8 3/4
2 3 HAPPY SOUL CP/TT K H Chan · C S Shum 1 8.5 3/4
3 9 WOOD ON FIRE V/TT H T Mo · C W Chang 3 13.0 1
4 10 YOUNG HORIZON CP M L Yeung · D A Hayes 7 6.5 1-3/4
5 6 UNISON CP1/XB1/TT1 B Avdulla · J Richards 2 9.5 2
6 2 HAPPY TRIO B K Teetan · D J Whyte 9 7.8 3-1/4
7 1 LIGHTNING BOLT TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 8 20.0 4-3/4
8 7 SO TREASURE B- L Ferraris · M Newnham 6 9.8 6
9 8 TOGEPI CP1/TT A Hamelin · W K Mo 10 38.0 8
10 5 SAVVY CHIC V-/TT H Bowman · F C Lor 4 9.9 16-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLDEN LUCK2. HAPPY SOUL+0.75L3. WOOD ON FIRE+1L4. YOUNG HORIZON+1.75L5. UNISON+2L6. HAPPY TRIO+3.25L7. LIGHTNING BOLT+4.75L8. SO TREASURE+6L9. TOGEPI+8L10. SAVVY CHIC+16.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SO TREASURE (18.0%) finished 8th — the winner GOLDEN LUCK was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SO TREASURE 18.0% 5.55 8
2 3 HAPPY SOUL 16.2% 6.19 2
3 5 SAVVY CHIC 12.5% 8.00 10
4 10 YOUNG HORIZON 11.4% 8.73 4
5 4 GOLDEN LUCK 10.8% 9.24 1
6 2 HAPPY TRIO 8.4% 11.95 6
7 1 LIGHTNING BOLT 7.5% 13.37 7
8 9 WOOD ON FIRE 5.9% 17.04 3
9 8 TOGEPI 5.3% 18.85 9
10 6 UNISON 4.0% 24.77 5
SO TREASUREHAPPY SOULSAVVY CHICYOUNG HORIZONGOLDEN LUCK — wonHAPPY TRIOLIGHTNING BOLTWOOD ON FIRETOGEPIUNISON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 28

PLACE

3 23

4 13.5

9 36

QUINELLA

3,4 118.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 46

3,9 122

4,9 82

FORECAST

4,3 190

TIERCE

4,3,9 1,566

TRIO

3,4,9 409

FIRST 4

3,4,9,10 551

QUARTET

4,3,9,10 8,638

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

5/3 52.5

5/4 186.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,8/3,4,9 10,839