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Happy Valley · 2024-09-18

Race 5

Class 3 1650m Course B 10 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-09-18 was Class 3 over 1650m. STAR CONTACT, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1/2, with SIMPLY MAVERICK second and SETANTA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite SETANTA finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.39.75
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 STAR CONTACT Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D A Hayes 6 5.2 1/2
2 2 SIMPLY MAVERICK A Atzeni · P F Yiu 7 7.0 1/2
3 9 SETANTA Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 4 3.0 1/2
4 1 SUPREME AGILITY Closed strongly B1/SR1/TT1 Z Purton · P C Ng 9 6.0 1-3/4
5 7 BEATO V/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 2 9.7 2-1/2
6 4 PERFECT TEAM Closed strongly H/P/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 5 12.0 3
7 3 GALLANT WAKING C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 12.0 3
8 8 SATIRICAL FAN Led early CP/TT E C W Wong · C S Shum 1 12.0 3-1/4
9 6 SILVER KING H-/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 8 71.0 17-1/2
10 10 ACROSS DA UNIVERSE XB-/TT A Hamelin · P C Ng 10 51.0 26

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STAR CONTACT2. SIMPLY MAVERICK+0.5L3. SETANTA+0.5L4. SUPREME AGILITY+1.75L5. BEATO+2.5L6. PERFECT TEAM+3L7. GALLANT WAKING+3L8. SATIRICAL FAN+3.25L9. SILVER KING+17.5L10. ACROSS DA UNIVERSE+26L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SUPREME AGILITY (20.3%) finished 4th — the winner STAR CONTACT was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SUPREME AGILITY 20.3% 4.93 4
2 9 SETANTA 18.3% 5.46 3
3 4 PERFECT TEAM 12.4% 8.08 6
4 5 STAR CONTACT 10.2% 9.82 1
5 7 BEATO 9.5% 10.57 5
6 2 SIMPLY MAVERICK 8.8% 11.34 2
7 3 GALLANT WAKING 7.9% 12.71 7
8 8 SATIRICAL FAN 7.8% 12.85 8
9 10 ACROSS DA UNIVERSE 3.3% 30.11 10
10 6 SILVER KING 1.6% 63.82 9
SUPREME AGILITYSETANTAPERFECT TEAMSTAR CONTACT — wonBEATOSIMPLY MAVERICKGALLANT WAKINGSATIRICAL FANACROSS DA UNIVERSESILVER KING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 52.5

PLACE

2 19

5 17.5

9 14.5

QUINELLA

2,5 153.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 53.5

2,9 43.5

5,9 38

FORECAST

5,2 251

TIERCE

5,2,9 629

TRIO

2,5,9 125

FIRST 4

1,2,5,9 101

QUARTET

5,2,9,1 1,791

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

1/1/2 431

1/1/5 2,108

4TH DOUBLE

1/2 91.5

1/5 282