Happy Valley · 2024-09-18

Race 7

Class 3 1200m Course B 10 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-09-18 was Class 3 over 1200m. BRAVE STAR, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with HEALTHY HEALTHY second and YOUNG ARROW third. The 2.9 favourite KAHOLO ANGEL finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.91

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	6	BRAVE STAR XB 1.09.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	6	124 lb	5.6	3/4
2	8	HEALTHY HEALTHY PC/TT Z Purton · P C Ng	Z Purton	P C Ng	9	123 lb	3.0	3/4
3	7	YOUNG ARROW XB K Teetan · D J Whyte	K Teetan	D J Whyte	5	124 lb	9.9	1-1/4
4	4	SOVEREIGN FUND B-/V1/TT- K De Melo · C W Chang	K De Melo	C W Chang	7	126 lb	48.0	1-3/4
5	1	KAHOLO ANGEL TT H Bowman · C Fownes	H Bowman	C Fownes	4	135 lb	2.9	2-1/4
6	9	MOJAVE DESERT CP-/B1 L Ferraris · D A Hayes	L Ferraris	D A Hayes	10	122 lb	28.0	3-1/4
7	10	EXCELLENT PEERS H/XB M Chadwick · F C Lor	M Chadwick	F C Lor	8	120 lb	58.0	4-1/2
8	5	PARTERRE B L Hewitson · W Y So	L Hewitson	W Y So	3	125 lb	15.0	5-3/4
9	2	POWER KOEPP E K C Leung · K L Man	K C Leung	K L Man	1	130 lb	20.0	6-3/4
10	3	MUST GO E/PC/TT B Avdulla · J Size	B Avdulla	J Size	2	126 lb	14.0	10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25

The model's top pick HEALTHY HEALTHY (25.8%) finished 2nd — the winner BRAVE STAR was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	8	HEALTHY HEALTHY	25.8%	3.88	2	3.0
2	1	KAHOLO ANGEL	15.4%	6.48	5	2.9
3	5	PARTERRE	13.5%	7.40	8	15.0
4	7	YOUNG ARROW	11.4%	8.76	3	9.9
5	3	MUST GO	10.2%	9.83	10	14.0
6	9	MOJAVE DESERT	6.7%	15.03	6	28.0
7	6	BRAVE STAR	6.6%	15.22	1	5.6
8	2	POWER KOEPP	4.8%	21.01	9	20.0
9	4	SOVEREIGN FUND	3.4%	29.20	4	48.0
10	10	EXCELLENT PEERS	2.3%	43.77	7	58.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 56

PLACE

6 17.5

7 25

8 15

QUINELLA

6,8 80.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 83

6,8 33

7,8 69

FORECAST

6,8 218

TIERCE

6,8,7 1,237

TRIO

6,7,8 253

FIRST 4

4,6,7,8 1,589

QUARTET

6,8,7,4 22,122

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

2/6 361.5

2/8 72.5

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