Happy Valley · 2024-09-18

Race 3

Class 4 1200m Course B 9 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-09-18 was Class 4 over 1200m. SWEET BRIAR, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with SMART FIGHTER second and TACTICAL COMMAND third. The 2.7 favourite GALLANT VALOUR finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.10.09

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	SWEET BRIAR V/TT 1.10.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · K W Lui	L Hewitson	K W Lui	4	135 lb	5.2	1/2
2	8	SMART FIGHTER CP-/H-/TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu	A Atzeni	P F Yiu	9	119 lb	15.0	1/2
3	9	TACTICAL COMMAND B A Badel · M Newnham	A Badel	M Newnham	7	118 lb	10.0	1-1/4
4	3	GALLANT VALOUR B/TT K Teetan · J Richards	K Teetan	J Richards	2	130 lb	2.7	1-1/2
5	4	EN PERFECTO TT M F Poon · C S Shum	M F Poon	C S Shum	6	125 lb	80.0	2-3/4
6	5	SUNNY DARLING SR/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng	C Y Ho	P C Ng	1	127 lb	12.0	2-3/4
7	6	LUCKY PLANET B/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte	M Chadwick	D J Whyte	3	124 lb	2.9	4-1/2
8	7	TRIPLE BLISS K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	5	122 lb	86.0	9
9	2	E UNIVERSE TT E C W Wong · W K Mo	E C W Wong	W K Mo	8	127 lb	22.0	9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25

The model's top pick LUCKY PLANET (28.6%) finished 7th — the winner SWEET BRIAR was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	6	LUCKY PLANET	28.6%	3.49	7	2.9
2	9	TACTICAL COMMAND	19.5%	5.13	3	10.0
3	3	GALLANT VALOUR	18.9%	5.30	4	2.7
4	1	SWEET BRIAR	12.2%	8.18	1	5.2
5	5	SUNNY DARLING	7.3%	13.73	6	12.0
6	8	SMART FIGHTER	6.3%	15.83	2	15.0
7	2	E UNIVERSE	5.9%	17.06	9	22.0
8	4	EN PERFECTO	0.8%	121.18	5	80.0
9	7	TRIPLE BLISS	0.5%	184.96	8	86.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 52.5

PLACE

1 17.5

8 35.5

9 26

QUINELLA

1,8 356

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 95.5

1,9 67.5

8,9 152.5

FORECAST

1,8 646

TIERCE

1,8,9 4,229

TRIO

1,8,9 785

FIRST 4

1,3,8,9 345

QUARTET

1,8,9,3 12,485

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

4/1 192.5

4/8 120

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