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Happy Valley · 2024-09-18

Race 4

Class 5 1000m Course B 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-09-18 was Class 5 over 1000m. HAPPY TANGO, ridden by K Teetan and trained by Y S Tsui, won by NOSE, with PARENTS' LOVE second and ACE TALENT third. The 4.5 favourite PARENTS' LOVE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.57.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 HAPPY TANGO B 0.57.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · Y S Tsui 8 9.8 NOSE
2 4 PARENTS' LOVE H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 5 4.5 NOSE
3 5 ACE TALENT H/P/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 9 15.0 1/2
4 11 MAGIC TRAVELLER B-/CP1/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 10 33.0 3
5 6 DIAMOND SOARS TT C L Chau · P F Yiu 7 19.0 3-1/2
6 3 GORGEOUS VITALITY TT L Hewitson · F C Lor 1 5.0 4
7 10 DOUBLE SHOW B/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte 4 4.5 5
8 7 PLENTIFUL CP/H/XB K C Leung · P C Ng 2 4.9 5-1/4
9 12 REGENCY HAPPY STAR B H T Mo · C W Chang 3 28.0 5-1/4
10 2 FALCON COURT CP/TT A Atzeni · D A Hayes 12 38.0 5-1/2
11 9 GOODMANSHIP B/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 6 23.0 6-3/4
12 8 PHILOS H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 11 48.0 8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAPPY TANGO2. PARENTS' LOVE+0.05L3. ACE TALENT+0.5L4. MAGIC TRAVELLER+3L5. DIAMOND SOARS+3.5L6. GORGEOUS VITALITY+4L7. DOUBLE SHOW+5L8. PLENTIFUL+5.25L9. REGENCY HAPPY STAR+5.25L10. FALCON COURT+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick PARENTS' LOVE (20.1%) finished 2nd — the winner HAPPY TANGO was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 PARENTS' LOVE 20.1% 4.97 2
2 3 GORGEOUS VITALITY 14.3% 6.98 6
3 1 HAPPY TANGO 10.2% 9.78 1
4 7 PLENTIFUL 10.0% 10.03 8
5 10 DOUBLE SHOW 8.1% 12.31 7
6 9 GOODMANSHIP 7.6% 13.14 11
7 5 ACE TALENT 6.9% 14.57 3
8 6 DIAMOND SOARS 6.2% 16.00 5
9 12 REGENCY HAPPY STAR 5.3% 18.99 9
10 2 FALCON COURT 4.8% 20.72 10
11 11 MAGIC TRAVELLER 3.4% 29.55 4
12 8 PHILOS 3.1% 32.62 12
PARENTS' LOVEGORGEOUS VITALITYHAPPY TANGO — wonPLENTIFULDOUBLE SHOWGOODMANSHIPACE TALENTDIAMOND SOARSREGENCY HAPPY STARFALCON COURTMAGIC TRAVELLERPHILOS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 98.5

PLACE

1 28

4 20

5 44.5

QUINELLA

1,4 267

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 92

1,5 198.5

4,5 108

FORECAST

1,4 533

TIERCE

1,4,5 3,365

TRIO

1,4,5 549

FIRST 4

1,4,5,11 4,906

QUARTET

1,4,5,11 92,583

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,8,9/1,4,5 79,378

3RD DOUBLE

1/1 563.5

1/4 66.5