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Sha Tin · 2024-09-22

Race 1

Class 4 1650m 10 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-22 was Class 4 over 1650m. FLOOF, ridden by M F Poon and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with LUCKY BANNER second and FOREVER FOLKS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite LUCKY BANNER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.22
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 FLOOF Closed strongly CP-/TT 1.39.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · P F Yiu 7 18.0 3/4
2 9 LUCKY BANNER H/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 2 3.1 3/4
3 8 FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B B Thompson · C W Chang 8 8.0 3/4
4 4 EXCEL WONGCHOY H/P/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 9 7.3 1-1/2
5 7 HAKKA RADIANCE Led early XB-/CP1/TT K C Leung · C S Shum 10 9.4 3
6 2 VIVA HUNTER TT P N Wong · K L Man 4 5.9 6-1/4
7 1 BILLIONAIRE SECRET H/PC/XB/TT2 K Teetan · K H Ting 1 7.7 7-1/2
8 10 GAMEPLAYER WARRIOR SR-/XB/B1/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte 6 46.0 9-3/4
9 5 SOLAR GOGO C L Chau · T P Yung 3 7.5 9-3/4
10 6 FORTUNE WHISKEY H/P H T Mo · C W Chang 5 55.0 23-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLOOF2. LUCKY BANNER+0.75L3. FOREVER FOLKS+0.75L4. EXCEL WONGCHOY+1.5L5. HAKKA RADIANCE+3L6. VIVA HUNTER+6.25L7. BILLIONAIRE SECRET+7.5L8. GAMEPLAYER WARRIOR+9.75L9. SOLAR GOGO+9.75L10. FORTUNE WHISKEY+23.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick LUCKY BANNER (22.8%) finished 2nd — the winner FLOOF was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 LUCKY BANNER 22.8% 4.38 2
2 1 BILLIONAIRE SECRET 14.6% 6.85 7
3 2 VIVA HUNTER 14.0% 7.16 6
4 4 EXCEL WONGCHOY 11.7% 8.58 4
5 8 FOREVER FOLKS 11.1% 9.03 3
6 7 HAKKA RADIANCE 8.9% 11.30 5
7 5 SOLAR GOGO 8.4% 11.92 9
8 3 FLOOF 6.1% 16.48 1
9 6 FORTUNE WHISKEY 1.5% 68.49 10
10 10 GAMEPLAYER WARRIOR 1.1% 88.41 8
LUCKY BANNERBILLIONAIRE SECRETVIVA HUNTEREXCEL WONGCHOYFOREVER FOLKSHAKKA RADIANCESOLAR GOGOFLOOF — wonFORTUNE WHISKEYGAMEPLAYER WARRIOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 188

PLACE

3 47

8 23

9 14

QUINELLA

3,9 300

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 227

3,9 99.5

8,9 45

FORECAST

3,9 875

TIERCE

3,9,8 5,383

TRIO

3,8,9 806

FIRST 4

3,4,8,9 548

QUARTET

3,9,8,4 20,157