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Sha Tin · 2024-09-22

Race 2

Class 5 1650m 10 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-22 was Class 5 over 1650m. RELIABLE PROFIT, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C S Shum, won by 2-1/4, with GO GO GO second and COLOURFUL BARON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite GO GO GO finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.38.99
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 RELIABLE PROFIT Closed strongly B-/P1/TT 1.38.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C S Shum 10 5.5 2-1/4
2 1 GO GO GO Closed strongly PC/TT Z Purton · W Y So 1 3.8 2-1/4
3 7 COLOURFUL BARON Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 6 19.0 5-1/2
4 10 JOYFUL CHAMPION Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · C W Chang 5 5.0 5-3/4
5 6 PRECISION GOAL CP1/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes 2 11.0 7-1/4
6 8 MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT M F Poon · P C Ng 7 14.0 7-3/4
7 3 HARRY'S HERO Closed strongly H2 H Bentley · P F Yiu 8 14.0 11-1/4
8 2 VIVA A LA Led early B/TT P N Wong · K L Man 3 7.7 12-1/2
9 5 ASIAN ONE Closed strongly B-/XB/PC2/TT A Atzeni · J Richards 9 15.0 18-1/2
10 9 PATCH OF WATCH SR-/B/TT B Avdulla · K L Man 4 10.0 33

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RELIABLE PROFIT2. GO GO GO+2.25L3. COLOURFUL BARON+5.5L4. JOYFUL CHAMPION+5.75L5. PRECISION GOAL+7.25L6. MEDIC ELITE+7.75L7. HARRY'S HERO+11.25L8. VIVA A LA+12.5L9. ASIAN ONE+18.5L10. PATCH OF WATCH+33L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick GO GO GO (40.8%) finished 2nd — the winner RELIABLE PROFIT was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 GO GO GO 40.8% 2.45 2
2 10 JOYFUL CHAMPION 10.6% 9.45 4
3 6 PRECISION GOAL 10.4% 9.62 5
4 2 VIVA A LA 8.9% 11.23 8
5 4 RELIABLE PROFIT 8.6% 11.59 1
6 9 PATCH OF WATCH 6.7% 14.82 10
7 8 MEDIC ELITE 5.1% 19.43 6
8 3 HARRY'S HERO 3.2% 31.31 7
9 5 ASIAN ONE 2.9% 34.51 9
10 7 COLOURFUL BARON 2.7% 36.76 3
GO GO GOJOYFUL CHAMPIONPRECISION GOALVIVA A LARELIABLE PROFIT — wonPATCH OF WATCHMEDIC ELITEHARRY'S HEROASIAN ONECOLOURFUL BARON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 55

PLACE

1 17

4 17.5

7 55.5

QUINELLA

1,4 102.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 43.5

1,7 126.5

4,7 153.5

FORECAST

4,1 226

TIERCE

4,1,7 2,711

TRIO

1,4,7 536

FIRST 4

1,4,7,10 556

QUARTET

4,1,7,10 11,519

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

3/1 200.5

3/4 1,839

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,8,9/1,4,7 23,379