Sha Tin · 2024-09-22

Race 9

Class 3 1200m Course B+2 10 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-22 was Class 3 over 1200m. WUNDERBAR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with LUCY IN THE SKY second and CAPTAIN WIN third. Victory came as the 1.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.65

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	WUNDERBAR 1.09.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	2	134 lb	1.5	1/2
2	5	LUCY IN THE SKY H K Teetan · Y S Tsui	K Teetan	Y S Tsui	4	125 lb	3.8	1/2
3	9	CAPTAIN WIN B C Y Ho · P C Ng	C Y Ho	P C Ng	6	120 lb	13.0	1
4	3	SUGAR SUGAR B/TT H Bowman · C Fownes	H Bowman	C Fownes	1	127 lb	27.0	1
5	2	CALIFORNIA TOUCH TT M Chadwick · W K Mo	M Chadwick	W K Mo	7	127 lb	28.0	2-1/4
6	8	STORM RIDER L Hewitson · D A Hayes	L Hewitson	D A Hayes	9	123 lb	24.0	2-1/2
7	6	GOLDEN EMPIRE B A Atzeni · K W Lui	A Atzeni	K W Lui	8	123 lb	55.0	2-3/4
8	7	PRAWNS ELEVEN XB/TT H Bentley · M Newnham	H Bentley	M Newnham	5	123 lb	16.0	2-3/4
9	4	YOUNG SUPERSTAR TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz	Y L Chung	A S Cruz	10	123 lb	44.0	4-1/2
10	10	MEGA BONUS V A Hamelin · P F Yiu	A Hamelin	P F Yiu	3	120 lb	71.0	5-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25

The model's top pick LUCY IN THE SKY (31.6%) finished 2nd — the winner WUNDERBAR was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	5	LUCY IN THE SKY	31.6%	3.16	2	3.8
2	1	WUNDERBAR	24.6%	4.07	1	1.5
3	9	CAPTAIN WIN	11.1%	9.01	3	13.0
4	7	PRAWNS ELEVEN	8.2%	12.14	8	16.0
5	2	CALIFORNIA TOUCH	7.6%	13.11	5	28.0
6	3	SUGAR SUGAR	5.0%	19.90	4	27.0
7	8	STORM RIDER	4.4%	22.62	6	24.0
8	4	YOUNG SUPERSTAR	2.9%	34.89	9	44.0
9	6	GOLDEN EMPIRE	2.6%	38.91	7	55.0
10	10	MEGA BONUS	2.0%	50.35	10	71.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 15.5

PLACE

1 12

5 10.1

9 22

QUINELLA

1,5 25

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 14.5

1,9 30.5

5,9 45.5

FORECAST

1,5 35

TIERCE

1,5,9 124

TRIO

1,5,9 60

FIRST 4

1,3,5,9 132

QUARTET

1,5,9,3 819

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

7/1 89.5

7/5 22.5

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