Sha Tin · 2024-09-22
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-22 was Group 3 over 1400m. THE GOLDEN SCENERY, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1/2, with TAJ DRAGON second and HEALTHY HAPPY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.9 favourite CHIU CHOW SPIRIT finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY Closed strongly TT 1.22.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 2 | 5.9 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | TAJ DRAGON Closed strongly C Y Ho · P C Ng | C Y Ho | P C Ng | 1 | 7.2 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | HEALTHY HAPPY V/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 6 | 20.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | PACKING TREADMILL Led early SR L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 4 | 13.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | CHIU CHOW SPIRIT Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 7 | 1.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | WONDER KIT B A Atzeni · K W Lui | A Atzeni | K W Lui | 3 | 5.1 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | FLYING ACE B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 5 | 16.0 | 6-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CHIU CHOW SPIRIT | 29.7% | 3.37 | 5 |
| 2 | 2 | FLYING ACE | 14.9% | 6.72 | 7 |
| 3 | 5 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY | 14.3% | 6.99 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | TAJ DRAGON | 13.8% | 7.24 | 2 |
| 5 | 4 | PACKING TREADMILL | 12.3% | 8.16 | 4 |
| 6 | 7 | WONDER KIT | 11.7% | 8.58 | 6 |
| 7 | 3 | HEALTHY HAPPY | 3.4% | 29.32 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 59.5
PLACE
1 21.5
3 47
5 19
QUINELLA
1,5 209
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 159.5
1,5 47
3,5 164
FORECAST
5,1 414
TIERCE
5,1,3 3,945
TRIO
1,3,5 771
FIRST 4
1,3,4,5 1,392
QUARTET
5,1,3,4 24,720
All pools (1 more)
6TH DOUBLE
8/1 54.5
8/5 466.5