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Sha Tin · 2024-09-22

Race 5

Class 4 1000m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-22 was Class 4 over 1000m. CHEVAL VALIANT, ridden by P N Wong and trained by D J Whyte, won by N, with MAJESTIC EXPRESS second and MR GOOD VIBES third. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.56.95
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 CHEVAL VALIANT B/TT 0.56.95 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) P N Wong · D J Whyte 6 3.1 N
2 3 MAJESTIC EXPRESS E H Bowman · J Size 3 43.0 N
3 13 MR GOOD VIBES B A Badel · D J Hall 10 22.0 3-1/2
4 1 METRO WARRIOR B K C Leung · D A Hayes 9 8.5 4
5 4 PANDA B Z Purton · C H Yip 5 6.1 4-1/4
6 11 CIRCUIT SEVEN B/TT M F Poon · W K Mo 4 15.0 5-1/4
7 12 HOLY POWER B/TT M Chadwick · J Richards 13 6.5 5-1/4
8 5 DRAGON AIR FORCE TT- K Teetan · P F Yiu 2 5.7 6
9 9 RUN RUN COOL PC L Hewitson · F C Lor 11 13.0 6-1/4
10 10 SOLAR UP H/P1/TT2 H T Mo · C W Chang 7 155.0 7-1/4
11 6 ALMIGHTY KICK XB Y L Chung · K W Lui 14 126.0 7-1/2
12 7 SUPERSONIC B/XB B Thompson · M Newnham 12 22.0 9-1/2
13 14 SPICY SPANGLE H-/PC-/XB-/TT1 C Y Ho · P C Ng 8 60.0 14-1/4
14 8 VIGOR ELLEEGANT TT C L Chau · K L Man 1 168.0 27

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHEVAL VALIANT2. MAJESTIC EXPRESS+0.05L3. MR GOOD VIBES+3.5L4. METRO WARRIOR+4L5. PANDA+4.25L6. CIRCUIT SEVEN+5.25L7. HOLY POWER+5.25L8. DRAGON AIR FORCE+6L9. RUN RUN COOL+6.25L10. SOLAR UP+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick DRAGON AIR FORCE (21.4%) finished 8th — the winner CHEVAL VALIANT was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 DRAGON AIR FORCE 21.4% 4.66 8
2 4 PANDA 19.3% 5.17 5
3 2 CHEVAL VALIANT 13.1% 7.65 1
4 1 METRO WARRIOR 9.1% 10.98 4
5 13 MR GOOD VIBES 8.5% 11.82 3
6 11 CIRCUIT SEVEN 7.2% 13.95 6
7 12 HOLY POWER 6.7% 14.83 7
8 9 RUN RUN COOL 5.8% 17.33 9
9 3 MAJESTIC EXPRESS 3.6% 27.97 2
10 14 SPICY SPANGLE 1.3% 74.56 13
11 10 SOLAR UP 1.3% 75.98 10
12 8 VIGOR ELLEEGANT 1.1% 94.73 14
13 7 SUPERSONIC 0.9% 112.97 12
14 6 ALMIGHTY KICK 0.7% 138.76 11
DRAGON AIR FORCEPANDACHEVAL VALIANT — wonMETRO WARRIORMR GOOD VIBESCIRCUIT SEVENHOLY POWERRUN RUN COOLMAJESTIC EXPRESSSPICY SPANGLESOLAR UPVIGOR ELLEEGANTSUPERSONICALMIGHTY KICK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 31.5

PLACE

2 15.5

3 110.5

13 49

QUINELLA

2,3 699.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 232

2,13 113.5

3,13 835.5

FORECAST

2,3 1,140

TIERCE

2,3,13 16,660

TRIO

2,3,13 3,100

FIRST 4

1,2,3,13 4,922

QUARTET

2,3,13,1 123,806

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

7/4/2 5,230

7/4/3 7,983

4TH DOUBLE

4/2 326.5

4/3 581