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Sha Tin · 2024-09-22

Race 8

Class 4 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-22 was Class 4 over 1400m. MASTER MASTERMIND, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1/2, with FIRST LOVE second and ALL RICHES third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite BALLISTIC WIN finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.22.80
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 MASTER MASTERMIND Closed strongly B-/CP1/TT 1.22.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D A Hayes 1 4.2 1/2
2 2 FIRST LOVE Closed strongly TT1 Z Purton · P C Ng 10 9.9 1/2
3 4 ALL RICHES Led early V K C Leung · P F Yiu 8 6.1 1
4 12 STRATHPEFFER B M Chadwick · D J Whyte 12 17.0 2
5 8 BEER PALACE Closed strongly B-/P1/TT- L Ferraris · M Newnham 6 12.0 3-1/4
6 5 HIGHLAND RAHY CP/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui 11 14.0 3-1/2
7 3 BALLISTIC WIN B Thompson · T P Yung 3 2.8 3-1/2
8 6 MAJESTIC SPEED CP1/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 2 145.0 4-1/4
9 9 SMASHING EXPRESS Closed strongly E B Avdulla · J Size 5 111.0 6
10 11 MIU FA FA H-/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 13 33.0 8
11 10 RAGNARR Closed strongly XB/H1 P N Wong · D J Hall 4 39.0 8-1/4
12 13 FAST AS ROCKET TT K De Melo · W Y So 9 124.0 9
13 1 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY CP/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 7 15.0 9-1/2
14 14 FORTUNE COOKIES B-/TT- H T Mo · J Richards 14 198.0 21-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASTER MASTERMIND2. FIRST LOVE+0.5L3. ALL RICHES+1L4. STRATHPEFFER+2L5. BEER PALACE+3.25L6. HIGHLAND RAHY+3.5L7. BALLISTIC WIN+3.5L8. MAJESTIC SPEED+4.25L9. SMASHING EXPRESS+6L10. MIU FA FA+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick MASTER MASTERMIND (18.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 MASTER MASTERMIND 18.7% 5.34 1
2 3 BALLISTIC WIN 17.0% 5.90 7
3 2 FIRST LOVE 14.7% 6.78 2
4 4 ALL RICHES 9.4% 10.61 3
5 8 BEER PALACE 9.0% 11.07 5
6 5 HIGHLAND RAHY 7.1% 14.10 6
7 1 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY 6.9% 14.52 13
8 10 RAGNARR 6.7% 14.85 11
9 12 STRATHPEFFER 4.8% 20.73 4
10 13 FAST AS ROCKET 1.4% 71.00 12
11 11 MIU FA FA 1.4% 71.18 10
12 6 MAJESTIC SPEED 1.1% 91.65 8
13 9 SMASHING EXPRESS 1.1% 94.93 9
14 14 FORTUNE COOKIES 0.6% 162.49 14
MASTER MASTERMIND — wonBALLISTIC WINFIRST LOVEALL RICHESBEER PALACEHIGHLAND RAHYCALIFORNIA DEEPLYRAGNARRSTRATHPEFFERFAST AS ROCKETMIU FA FAMAJESTIC SPEEDSMASHING EXPRESSFORTUNE COOKIES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 42

PLACE

2 33

4 21

7 16

QUINELLA

2,7 188.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 101

2,7 63.5

4,7 46.5

FORECAST

7,2 380

TIERCE

7,2,4 1,977

TRIO

2,4,7 411

FIRST 4

2,4,7,12 935

QUARTET

7,2,4,12 15,638

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,5/2,4,7 48,824

7TH DOUBLE

5/2 126.5

5/7 314