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Happy Valley · 2024-10-09 · 11:15

Race 1

Class 5 1650m Course A 8 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-09 was Class 5 over 1650m. DRAGON DELIGHT, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by D A Hayes, won by HD, with KASA PAPA second and RIGHT HONOURABLE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite GO GO GO finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.41.92
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 DRAGON DELIGHT Closed strongly B/TT 1.41.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · D A Hayes 7 7.7 HD
2 2 KASA PAPA Closed strongly TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 3 4.4 HD
3 7 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly B/XB M Chadwick · M Newnham 6 6.8 1-1/4
4 8 YEABOI Led early B/TT M F Poon · C H Yip 5 10.0 2
5 1 GO GO GO PC/TT Z Purton · W Y So 4 3.4 2
6 6 RUNNING AHEAD C L Chau · T P Yung 1 5.2 4
7 4 TATTENHAM H K Teetan · P C Ng 2 9.1 4-1/2
8 3 MISTER FOX CP B Avdulla · D J Hall 8 42.0 4-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DRAGON DELIGHT2. KASA PAPA+0.2L3. RIGHT HONOURABLE+1.25L4. YEABOI+2L5. GO GO GO+2L6. RUNNING AHEAD+4L7. TATTENHAM+4.5L8. MISTER FOX+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick GO GO GO (30.1%) finished 5th — the winner DRAGON DELIGHT was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 GO GO GO 30.1% 3.32 5
2 2 KASA PAPA 18.2% 5.50 2
3 8 YEABOI 14.9% 6.69 4
4 6 RUNNING AHEAD 12.1% 8.25 6
5 4 TATTENHAM 9.0% 11.16 7
6 7 RIGHT HONOURABLE 8.0% 12.56 3
7 5 DRAGON DELIGHT 6.0% 16.70 1
8 3 MISTER FOX 1.7% 57.79 8
GO GO GOKASA PAPAYEABOIRUNNING AHEADTATTENHAMRIGHT HONOURABLEDRAGON DELIGHT — wonMISTER FOX

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 77.5

PLACE

2 16.5

5 19.5

7 23

QUINELLA

2,5 180

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 62

2,7 50.5

5,7 63.5

FORECAST

5,2 388

TIERCE

5,2,7 1,984

TRIO

2,5,7 322

FIRST 4

2,5,7,8 632

QUARTET

5,2,7,8 12,978