Happy Valley · 2024-10-09 · 13:15
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-09 was Class 4 over 1200m. GALLANT VALOUR, ridden by H Bowman and trained by J Richards, won by SH, with TACTICAL COMMAND second and HAPPY PARK third. Victory came as the 4.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | GALLANT VALOUR B/TT 1.10.49 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · J Richards | H Bowman | J Richards | 4 | 4.2 | SH |
| 2 | 12 | TACTICAL COMMAND B A Badel · M Newnham | A Badel | M Newnham | 6 | 8.2 | SH |
| 3 | 7 | HAPPY PARK XB A Atzeni · K W Lui | A Atzeni | K W Lui | 3 | 6.8 | N |
| 4 | 3 | HAYDAY H/XB M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 12 | 7.4 | 1 |
| 5 | 9 | GLORY B CP/H M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 5 | 5.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | SKY PROPHET CP1/TT L Hewitson · C Fownes | L Hewitson | C Fownes | 10 | 13.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | TELECOM POWER B K De Melo · Y S Tsui | K De Melo | Y S Tsui | 11 | 65.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | HAPPY SOUL CP/TT K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 8 | 18.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 1 | HIGH PERCENTAGE TT Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 1 | 8.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 2 | NATURAL HIGH B Thompson · D J Hall | B Thompson | D J Hall | 2 | 106.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | CURRAHEE CP/TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 7 | 11.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 4 | PANDA B Y L Chung · C H Yip | Y L Chung | C H Yip | 9 | 32.0 | 5-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | HIGH PERCENTAGE | 21.3% | 4.69 | 9 |
| 2 | 5 | GALLANT VALOUR | 18.3% | 5.46 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | HAYDAY | 13.5% | 7.43 | 4 |
| 4 | 9 | GLORY B | 11.4% | 8.74 | 5 |
| 5 | 12 | TACTICAL COMMAND | 9.4% | 10.61 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | HAPPY PARK | 7.1% | 14.07 | 3 |
| 7 | 11 | SKY PROPHET | 5.1% | 19.61 | 6 |
| 8 | 6 | HAPPY SOUL | 4.0% | 24.82 | 8 |
| 9 | 4 | PANDA | 3.8% | 26.35 | 12 |
| 10 | 10 | CURRAHEE | 3.8% | 26.38 | 11 |
| 11 | 8 | TELECOM POWER | 1.5% | 67.78 | 7 |
| 12 | 2 | NATURAL HIGH | 0.7% | 137.10 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 42.5
PLACE
5 17.5
7 27.5
12 25
QUINELLA
5,12 166.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,7 67.5
5,12 60.5
7,12 109.5
FORECAST
5,12 344
TIERCE
5,12,7 2,468
TRIO
5,7,12 429
FIRST 4
3,5,7,12 621
QUARTET
5,12,7,3 13,950
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
7/3/5 238
7/3/12 88
4TH DOUBLE
3/5 193.5
3/12 63