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Happy Valley · 2024-10-09 · 12:15

Race 3

Class 4 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-09 was Class 4 over 1650m. SUPER UNICORN, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 5-3/4, with CHARITY GAIN second and STRONGEST BOY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.39.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 SUPER UNICORN Closed strongly TT 1.39.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 1 1.4 5-3/4
2 4 CHARITY GAIN Closed strongly B-/XB1/TT C Y Ho · D Eustace 7 42.0 5-3/4
3 6 STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 3 12.0 6-1/2
4 8 TO INFINITY Closed strongly B/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 2 29.0 7-3/4
5 5 CONFRINGO B-/CP1/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 4 107.0 8-1/4
6 9 BEER PALACE Led early P-/B2 L Ferraris · M Newnham 12 19.0 9
7 2 FAIRY HORSE Closed strongly TT A Badel · C Fownes 5 10.0 9-3/4
8 11 LITTLE FAIRY B/TT M F Poon · P F Yiu 10 23.0 10
9 1 NORTHERN BEAST H Bowman · D J Hall 11 19.0 12-3/4
10 3 KIMBERLEY B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 6 10.0 14-1/2
11 12 UNITED ENDEAVORS H/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 9 39.0 15-3/4
12 10 ON THE LASH B/XB K De Melo · P C Ng 8 162.0 16
0 FLYING WROTE Y L Chung · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER UNICORN2. CHARITY GAIN+5.75L3. STRONGEST BOY+6.5L4. TO INFINITY+7.75L5. CONFRINGO+8.25L6. BEER PALACE+9L7. FAIRY HORSE+9.75L8. LITTLE FAIRY+10L9. NORTHERN BEAST+12.75L10. KIMBERLEY+14.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SUPER UNICORN (54.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SUPER UNICORN 54.4% 1.84 1
2 2 FAIRY HORSE 9.4% 10.69 7
3 1 NORTHERN BEAST 7.9% 12.71 9
4 9 BEER PALACE 6.5% 15.50 6
5 6 STRONGEST BOY 5.3% 18.94 3
6 3 KIMBERLEY 4.4% 22.71 10
7 8 TO INFINITY 3.6% 27.81 4
8 12 UNITED ENDEAVORS 3.4% 29.65 11
9 11 LITTLE FAIRY 3.0% 32.90 8
10 5 CONFRINGO 0.9% 107.00 5
11 4 CHARITY GAIN 0.7% 135.67 2
12 10 ON THE LASH 0.6% 177.38 12
SUPER UNICORN — wonFAIRY HORSENORTHERN BEASTBEER PALACESTRONGEST BOYKIMBERLEYTO INFINITYUNITED ENDEAVORSLITTLE FAIRYCONFRINGOCHARITY GAINON THE LASH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 14.5

PLACE

4 85

6 24

7 11

QUINELLA

4,7 416.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 459.5

4,7 150

6,7 32.5

FORECAST

7,4 341

TIERCE

7,4,6 2,207

TRIO

4,6,7 571

FIRST 4

4,6,7,8 1,720

QUARTET

7,4,6,8 21,416

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

10/4 568.5

10/7 247