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Happy Valley · 2024-10-09 · 13:45

Race 6

Class 4 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-09 was Class 4 over 1200m. SWIFT ASCEND, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D Eustace, won by 1-1/4, with GIMME FIVE second and SMART FIGHTER third. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.12
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 SWIFT ASCEND XB-/B1/TT1 1.10.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D Eustace 3 3.1 1-1/4
2 10 GIMME FIVE B1 C Y Ho · F C Lor 10 18.0 1-1/4
3 8 SMART FIGHTER TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu 7 5.3 2-1/4
4 9 TALENTS SUPREMO V/TT K Teetan · W K Mo 1 4.0 3
5 6 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING B-/TT- H T Mo · C W Chang 5 25.0 3-1/2
6 5 EN PERFECTO CP1/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 8 29.0 3-1/2
7 11 SUPER GLORY PC A Badel · P C Ng 11 28.0 4-1/2
8 4 LEAN MASTER B/TT H Bentley · C H Yip 12 20.0 5-3/4
9 7 SKY SONG TT B Thompson · C Fownes 2 8.8 6-3/4
10 12 WINNING HEART V/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 4 27.0 6-3/4
11 2 KING GLORIOSO CP H Bowman · D J Whyte 6 43.0 7-1/4
12 3 NEBRASKAN PC B Avdulla · J Size 9 13.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SWIFT ASCEND2. GIMME FIVE+1.25L3. SMART FIGHTER+2.25L4. TALENTS SUPREMO+3L5. YOU'REMYEVERYTHING+3.5L6. EN PERFECTO+3.5L7. SUPER GLORY+4.5L8. LEAN MASTER+5.75L9. SKY SONG+6.75L10. WINNING HEART+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick TALENTS SUPREMO (29.6%) finished 4th — the winner SWIFT ASCEND was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 TALENTS SUPREMO 29.6% 3.38 4
2 1 SWIFT ASCEND 14.9% 6.71 1
3 7 SKY SONG 9.4% 10.62 9
4 8 SMART FIGHTER 9.1% 11.00 3
5 4 LEAN MASTER 8.7% 11.52 8
6 3 NEBRASKAN 5.5% 18.22 12
7 10 GIMME FIVE 5.2% 19.13 2
8 12 WINNING HEART 5.1% 19.68 10
9 11 SUPER GLORY 4.0% 25.13 7
10 2 KING GLORIOSO 3.8% 26.50 11
11 6 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING 3.2% 30.99 5
12 5 EN PERFECTO 1.5% 64.85 6
TALENTS SUPREMOSWIFT ASCEND — wonSKY SONGSMART FIGHTERLEAN MASTERNEBRASKANGIMME FIVEWINNING HEARTSUPER GLORYKING GLORIOSOYOU'REMYEVERYTHINGEN PERFECTO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 31.5

PLACE

1 16

8 17.5

10 49.5

QUINELLA

1,10 302.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 42

1,10 109.5

8,10 146.5

FORECAST

1,10 483

TIERCE

1,10,8 2,302

TRIO

1,8,10 656

FIRST 4

1,8,9,10 291

QUARTET

1,10,8,9 5,840

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

5,7,12/1,8,10 22,571

5TH DOUBLE

5/1 132.5

5/10 128.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,3,6/5,7,12/1,8,10 975,636

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,3,6/5,7,12/Any Combination 2,182