Happy Valley · 2024-10-09 · 12:45
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-09 was Class 4 over 1200m. AURORA LADY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by 4-1/4, with KING ECCELLENTE second and YEE CHEONG SPIRIT third. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | AURORA LADY CP/TT 1.10.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 8 | 2.3 | 4-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | KING ECCELLENTE SR/XB H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 4 | 4.8 | 4-1/4 |
| 3 | 6 | YEE CHEONG SPIRIT H/XB/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 12 | 16.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | LYRICAL MOTION B/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 7 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 5 | 10 | SO TREASURE L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 9 | 42.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | UNISON CP/XB/TT A Atzeni · J Richards | A Atzeni | J Richards | 2 | 15.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 11 | NEVER PETER OUT CP/TT M L Yeung · F C Lor | M L Yeung | F C Lor | 1 | 8.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 8 | WORLD HERO B K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 3 | 40.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | GOLDEN RISE B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 10 | 8.1 | 6 |
| 10 | 12 | WOOD ON FIRE V/TT H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 11 | 40.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 9 | FORTUNE RACER H/TT Y L Chung · W K Mo | Y L Chung | W K Mo | 5 | 127.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | SWEET DIAMOND TT L Hewitson · P F Yiu | L Hewitson | P F Yiu | 6 | 37.0 | 8-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | KING ECCELLENTE | 22.2% | 4.51 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | AURORA LADY | 21.8% | 4.59 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | GOLDEN RISE | 11.3% | 8.86 | 9 |
| 4 | 6 | YEE CHEONG SPIRIT | 10.4% | 9.57 | 3 |
| 5 | 2 | LYRICAL MOTION | 9.9% | 10.09 | 4 |
| 6 | 5 | UNISON | 6.1% | 16.42 | 6 |
| 7 | 7 | SWEET DIAMOND | 4.6% | 21.60 | 12 |
| 8 | 12 | WOOD ON FIRE | 4.0% | 24.95 | 10 |
| 9 | 11 | NEVER PETER OUT | 3.7% | 26.98 | 7 |
| 10 | 8 | WORLD HERO | 2.9% | 33.91 | 8 |
| 11 | 10 | SO TREASURE | 2.3% | 44.30 | 5 |
| 12 | 9 | FORTUNE RACER | 0.7% | 135.32 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 23
PLACE
1 16
3 12.5
6 36
QUINELLA
1,3 65.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 29.5
1,6 119.5
3,6 82
FORECAST
3,1 125
TIERCE
3,1,6 1,231
TRIO
1,3,6 269
FIRST 4
1,2,3,6 318
QUARTET
3,1,6,2 7,061
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
4,6,7/1,3,6 13,397
3RD DOUBLE
7/1 10.5
7/3 59