Happy Valley · 2024-10-09 · 14:20
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-09 was Class 3 over 1650m. I CAN, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P C Ng, won by HD, with STAR CONTACT second and ROCKET SPADE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | I CAN Closed strongly H/TT 1.40.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 2 | 2.6 | HD |
| 2 | 1 | STAR CONTACT Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 10 | 16.0 | HD |
| 3 | 6 | ROCKET SPADE Closed strongly XB/TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 6 | 6.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 7 | FIGHTING MACHINE Closed strongly B/SR Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 11 | 6.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | M UNICORN Closed strongly H/P/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 3 | 14.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | JOLLY RULER Closed strongly CP-/TT B Avdulla · P F Yiu | B Avdulla | P F Yiu | 4 | 8.1 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | SETANTA Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 1 | 6.8 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 4 | TOY SOLTERO Closed strongly SR/XB1 L Hewitson · C W Chang | L Hewitson | C W Chang | 5 | 55.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | ROMANTIC LAOS TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 9 | 37.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | BEATO Closed strongly V/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 7 | 23.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | SATIRICAL FAN CP/TT E C W Wong · C S Shum | E C W Wong | C S Shum | 8 | 35.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 11 | SILVER KING Led early P1/TT B Thompson · F C Lor | B Thompson | F C Lor | 12 | 108.0 | 10 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | FIGHTING MACHINE | 27.2% | 3.67 | 4 |
| 2 | 12 | I CAN | 20.6% | 4.86 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | SETANTA | 16.2% | 6.16 | 7 |
| 4 | 5 | JOLLY RULER | 7.7% | 13.06 | 6 |
| 5 | 1 | STAR CONTACT | 5.8% | 17.10 | 2 |
| 6 | 6 | ROCKET SPADE | 5.8% | 17.15 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | BEATO | 5.8% | 17.35 | 10 |
| 8 | 3 | M UNICORN | 4.3% | 23.33 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 | ROMANTIC LAOS | 2.7% | 37.41 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | SATIRICAL FAN | 2.3% | 42.67 | 11 |
| 11 | 11 | SILVER KING | 0.8% | 121.25 | 12 |
| 12 | 4 | TOY SOLTERO | 0.8% | 130.21 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 26.5
PLACE
1 34
6 25
12 12
QUINELLA
1,12 189
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 162
1,12 58.5
6,12 39
FORECAST
12,1 242
TIERCE
12,1,6 1,080
TRIO
1,6,12 286
FIRST 4
1,6,7,12 417
QUARTET
12,1,6,7 6,460
All pools (1 more)
6TH DOUBLE
1/1 72
1/12 80.5