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Happy Valley · 2024-10-09 · 14:20

Race 7

Class 3 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-09 was Class 3 over 1650m. I CAN, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P C Ng, won by HD, with STAR CONTACT second and ROCKET SPADE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.40.12
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 I CAN Closed strongly H/TT 1.40.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P C Ng 2 2.6 HD
2 1 STAR CONTACT Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 10 16.0 HD
3 6 ROCKET SPADE Closed strongly XB/TT A Badel · C Fownes 6 6.8 1-1/4
4 7 FIGHTING MACHINE Closed strongly B/SR Z Purton · P C Ng 11 6.4 2-1/2
5 3 M UNICORN Closed strongly H/P/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 3 14.0 2-1/2
6 5 JOLLY RULER Closed strongly CP-/TT B Avdulla · P F Yiu 4 8.1 2-3/4
7 8 SETANTA Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 1 6.8 4-1/4
8 4 TOY SOLTERO Closed strongly SR/XB1 L Hewitson · C W Chang 5 55.0 4-3/4
9 2 ROMANTIC LAOS TT K C Leung · W K Mo 9 37.0 4-3/4
10 9 BEATO Closed strongly V/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 7 23.0 5-1/4
11 10 SATIRICAL FAN CP/TT E C W Wong · C S Shum 8 35.0 7-1/2
12 11 SILVER KING Led early P1/TT B Thompson · F C Lor 12 108.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. I CAN2. STAR CONTACT+0.2L3. ROCKET SPADE+1.25L4. FIGHTING MACHINE+2.5L5. M UNICORN+2.5L6. JOLLY RULER+2.75L7. SETANTA+4.25L8. TOY SOLTERO+4.75L9. ROMANTIC LAOS+4.75L10. BEATO+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick FIGHTING MACHINE (27.2%) finished 4th — the winner I CAN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 FIGHTING MACHINE 27.2% 3.67 4
2 12 I CAN 20.6% 4.86 1
3 8 SETANTA 16.2% 6.16 7
4 5 JOLLY RULER 7.7% 13.06 6
5 1 STAR CONTACT 5.8% 17.10 2
6 6 ROCKET SPADE 5.8% 17.15 3
7 9 BEATO 5.8% 17.35 10
8 3 M UNICORN 4.3% 23.33 5
9 2 ROMANTIC LAOS 2.7% 37.41 9
10 10 SATIRICAL FAN 2.3% 42.67 11
11 11 SILVER KING 0.8% 121.25 12
12 4 TOY SOLTERO 0.8% 130.21 8
FIGHTING MACHINEI CAN — wonSETANTAJOLLY RULERSTAR CONTACTROCKET SPADEBEATOM UNICORNROMANTIC LAOSSATIRICAL FANSILVER KINGTOY SOLTERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 26.5

PLACE

1 34

6 25

12 12

QUINELLA

1,12 189

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 162

1,12 58.5

6,12 39

FORECAST

12,1 242

TIERCE

12,1,6 1,080

TRIO

1,6,12 286

FIRST 4

1,6,7,12 417

QUARTET

12,1,6,7 6,460

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

1/1 72

1/12 80.5