Happy Valley · 2024-10-09 · 14:55
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-09 was Class 3 over 1200m. CHATEAUNEUF, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-3/4, with SCOTCH TYCOON second and WINGS OF WAR third. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | CHATEAUNEUF B/TT 1.09.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 1 | 2.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 10 | SCOTCH TYCOON B/TT L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 3 | 13.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 2 | WINGS OF WAR B H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 7 | 7.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | RIGHTEOUS ARION TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 11 | 21.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | GOLDEN EMPIRE B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 12.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | SUPER JOY N FUN XB/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 12 | 8.6 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | PARTERRE B A Atzeni · W Y So | A Atzeni | W Y So | 2 | 70.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | REWARD SMILE TT H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 10 | 4.4 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | SOVEREIGN FUND V K De Melo · C W Chang | K De Melo | C W Chang | 6 | 18.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | EQUATORIAL H/SR/TT A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 8 | 117.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | SERGEANT PEPPER Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 5 | 91.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 4 | HAPPY FAT CAT CP/TT E C W Wong · W K Mo | E C W Wong | W K Mo | 9 | 38.0 | 9-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | CHATEAUNEUF | 31.3% | 3.19 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | SCOTCH TYCOON | 15.4% | 6.50 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | REWARD SMILE | 12.3% | 8.10 | 8 |
| 4 | 2 | WINGS OF WAR | 11.4% | 8.75 | 3 |
| 5 | 5 | SUPER JOY N FUN | 7.2% | 13.91 | 6 |
| 6 | 6 | GOLDEN EMPIRE | 5.8% | 17.30 | 5 |
| 7 | 9 | RIGHTEOUS ARION | 4.5% | 22.29 | 4 |
| 8 | 8 | PARTERRE | 3.8% | 26.08 | 7 |
| 9 | 12 | SERGEANT PEPPER | 3.0% | 33.22 | 11 |
| 10 | 4 | HAPPY FAT CAT | 2.8% | 35.90 | 12 |
| 11 | 7 | SOVEREIGN FUND | 1.9% | 53.58 | 9 |
| 12 | 3 | EQUATORIAL | 0.6% | 173.49 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 23.5
PLACE
2 19.5
10 34
11 12
QUINELLA
10,11 152
QUINELLA PLACE
2,10 119.5
2,11 36.5
10,11 58
FORECAST
11,10 214
TIERCE
11,10,2 965
TRIO
2,10,11 245
FIRST 4
2,9,10,11 651
QUARTET
11,10,2,9 7,405
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
1/12/10 223
1/12/11 225
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,6,12/2,10,11 6,604
7TH DOUBLE
12/10 49
12/11 67.5
SIX UP
4,7/1,3/5,12/1,10/1,12/10,11 432
7/3/5/1/12/11 2,814
4 [D A Hayes] —
1 [Z Purton] —