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Happy Valley · 2024-10-09 · 14:55

Race 8

Class 3 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-09 was Class 3 over 1200m. CHATEAUNEUF, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-3/4, with SCOTCH TYCOON second and WINGS OF WAR third. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.94
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 CHATEAUNEUF B/TT 1.09.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D A Hayes 1 2.3 1-3/4
2 10 SCOTCH TYCOON B/TT L Hewitson · M Newnham 3 13.0 1-3/4
3 2 WINGS OF WAR B H Bentley · D J Whyte 7 7.6 2-1/4
4 9 RIGHTEOUS ARION TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 11 21.0 2-3/4
5 6 GOLDEN EMPIRE B C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 12.0 2-3/4
6 5 SUPER JOY N FUN XB/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 12 8.6 3-3/4
7 8 PARTERRE B A Atzeni · W Y So 2 70.0 4-1/4
8 1 REWARD SMILE TT H Bowman · J Size 10 4.4 5-1/2
9 7 SOVEREIGN FUND V K De Melo · C W Chang 6 18.0 6-1/2
10 3 EQUATORIAL H/SR/TT A Badel · P C Ng 8 117.0 8-1/4
11 12 SERGEANT PEPPER Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 5 91.0 8-1/4
12 4 HAPPY FAT CAT CP/TT E C W Wong · W K Mo 9 38.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHATEAUNEUF2. SCOTCH TYCOON+1.75L3. WINGS OF WAR+2.25L4. RIGHTEOUS ARION+2.75L5. GOLDEN EMPIRE+2.75L6. SUPER JOY N FUN+3.75L7. PARTERRE+4.25L8. REWARD SMILE+5.5L9. SOVEREIGN FUND+6.5L10. EQUATORIAL+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick CHATEAUNEUF (31.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 CHATEAUNEUF 31.3% 3.19 1
2 10 SCOTCH TYCOON 15.4% 6.50 2
3 1 REWARD SMILE 12.3% 8.10 8
4 2 WINGS OF WAR 11.4% 8.75 3
5 5 SUPER JOY N FUN 7.2% 13.91 6
6 6 GOLDEN EMPIRE 5.8% 17.30 5
7 9 RIGHTEOUS ARION 4.5% 22.29 4
8 8 PARTERRE 3.8% 26.08 7
9 12 SERGEANT PEPPER 3.0% 33.22 11
10 4 HAPPY FAT CAT 2.8% 35.90 12
11 7 SOVEREIGN FUND 1.9% 53.58 9
12 3 EQUATORIAL 0.6% 173.49 10
CHATEAUNEUF — wonSCOTCH TYCOONREWARD SMILEWINGS OF WARSUPER JOY N FUNGOLDEN EMPIRERIGHTEOUS ARIONPARTERRESERGEANT PEPPERHAPPY FAT CATSOVEREIGN FUNDEQUATORIAL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 23.5

PLACE

2 19.5

10 34

11 12

QUINELLA

10,11 152

QUINELLA PLACE

2,10 119.5

2,11 36.5

10,11 58

FORECAST

11,10 214

TIERCE

11,10,2 965

TRIO

2,10,11 245

FIRST 4

2,9,10,11 651

QUARTET

11,10,2,9 7,405

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

1/12/10 223

1/12/11 225

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,6,12/2,10,11 6,604

7TH DOUBLE

12/10 49

12/11 67.5

SIX UP

4,7/1,3/5,12/1,10/1,12/10,11 432

7/3/5/1/12/11 2,814

4 [D A Hayes]

1 [Z Purton]