Happy Valley · 2024-10-30 · 11:15
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-30 was Class 4 over 1650m. D STAR, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by A S Cruz, won by SH, with CAN'T GO WONG second and DRAGON DELIGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite MIGHTY STEED finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | D STAR Closed strongly B/TT 1.40.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 10 | 13.0 | SH |
| 2 | 7 | CAN'T GO WONG Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 5 | 4.3 | SH |
| 3 | 11 | DRAGON DELIGHT B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 7 | 5.7 | N |
| 4 | 1 | MIGHTY STEED Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 6 | 2.6 | N |
| 5 | 2 | ESCAPE ROUTE Closed strongly H A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 11 | 25.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | FLYING SILVER TT Y L Chung · C S Shum | Y L Chung | C S Shum | 2 | 19.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | HAILTOTHEVICTORS Closed strongly TT1 C Y Ho · D Eustace | C Y Ho | D Eustace | 8 | 14.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | CONFRINGO CP/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 12 | 36.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | GREENWICH Led early TT A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 9 | 7.4 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 12 | SUPER HONG KONG B B Thompson · C H Yip | B Thompson | C H Yip | 3 | 70.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | DRALA L Hewitson · P F Yiu | L Hewitson | P F Yiu | 4 | 131.0 | 6-1/4 |
| — | 5 | ENSHINE H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | MIGHTY STEED | 33.9% | 2.95 | 4 |
| 2 | 7 | CAN'T GO WONG | 22.6% | 4.43 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | HAILTOTHEVICTORS | 9.8% | 10.15 | 7 |
| 4 | 11 | DRAGON DELIGHT | 8.9% | 11.26 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | D STAR | 6.1% | 16.31 | 1 |
| 6 | 2 | ESCAPE ROUTE | 5.4% | 18.64 | 5 |
| 7 | 10 | FLYING SILVER | 5.2% | 19.39 | 6 |
| 8 | 3 | GREENWICH | 3.7% | 27.24 | 9 |
| 9 | 8 | CONFRINGO | 1.9% | 53.26 | 8 |
| 10 | 12 | SUPER HONG KONG | 1.9% | 53.85 | 10 |
| 11 | 4 | DRALA | 0.7% | 141.18 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 136
PLACE
7 15
9 32
11 17.5
QUINELLA
7,9 232
QUINELLA PLACE
7,9 67.5
7,11 33.5
9,11 114
FORECAST
9,7 470
TIERCE
9,7,11 2,288
TRIO
7,9,11 297
FIRST 4
1,7,9,11 134
QUARTET
9,7,11,1 5,489