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Happy Valley · 2024-10-30 · 13:15

Race 5

Class 4 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-30 was Class 4 over 1650m. CAPITAL LEGEND, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with HARMONY GALAXY second and HIGHLAND RAHY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.9 favourite NINJA DERBY finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.40.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 CAPITAL LEGEND Closed strongly TT 1.40.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · C Fownes 12 13.0 N
2 3 HARMONY GALAXY Closed strongly TT M F Poon · C S Shum 3 35.0 N
3 10 HIGHLAND RAHY Led early CP/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui 5 5.0 3/4
4 11 NINJA DERBY H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 7 4.9 3/4
5 6 TURIN WARRIOR B-/XB Z Purton · K L Man 4 14.0 2-3/4
6 8 STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 2 5.5 3
7 5 SIXTH GENERATION V/TT A Atzeni · J Richards 1 5.6 3
8 4 PHANTOM CYCLONE Closed strongly V-/CP1/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 11 140.0 4
9 12 STERLING WONGCHOY Closed strongly SR/XB M Chadwick · D J Whyte 10 32.0 4-1/2
10 7 U S S CONSTITUTION P-/H/TT B Thompson · J Size 8 41.0 5-1/2
11 1 ENJOY GOLF H Bowman · F C Lor 6 6.2 9-3/4
12 9 MASTER TORNADO PC-/B2/TT A Badel · W Y So 9 20.0 45-3/4
0 SUPER BABY L Ferraris · M Newnham

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CAPITAL LEGEND2. HARMONY GALAXY+0.05L3. HIGHLAND RAHY+0.75L4. NINJA DERBY+0.75L5. TURIN WARRIOR+2.75L6. STRONGEST BOY+3L7. SIXTH GENERATION+3L8. PHANTOM CYCLONE+4L9. STERLING WONGCHOY+4.5L10. U S S CONSTITUTION+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick HIGHLAND RAHY (18.3%) finished 3rd — the winner CAPITAL LEGEND was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 HIGHLAND RAHY 18.3% 5.47 3
2 8 STRONGEST BOY 16.2% 6.18 6
3 1 ENJOY GOLF 15.4% 6.48 11
4 5 SIXTH GENERATION 12.5% 8.03 7
5 11 NINJA DERBY 9.9% 10.09 4
6 6 TURIN WARRIOR 7.4% 13.47 5
7 9 MASTER TORNADO 6.4% 15.60 12
8 2 CAPITAL LEGEND 5.5% 18.06 1
9 3 HARMONY GALAXY 3.2% 31.23 2
10 12 STERLING WONGCHOY 2.7% 36.37 9
11 7 U S S CONSTITUTION 1.5% 66.24 10
12 4 PHANTOM CYCLONE 0.9% 107.03 8
HIGHLAND RAHYSTRONGEST BOYENJOY GOLFSIXTH GENERATIONNINJA DERBYTURIN WARRIORMASTER TORNADOCAPITAL LEGEND — wonHARMONY GALAXYSTERLING WONGCHOYU S S CONSTITUTIONPHANTOM CYCLONE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 131.5

PLACE

2 49.5

3 87

10 21

QUINELLA

2,3 2,061

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 556.5

2,10 116.5

3,10 282

FORECAST

2,3 4,101

TIERCE

2,3,10 24,272

TRIO

2,3,10 3,578

FIRST 4

2,3,10,11 2,544

QUARTET

2,3,10,11 68,346

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

8/2/2 4,668

8/2/3 3,246

4TH DOUBLE

2/2 984

2/3 348.5