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Happy Valley · 2024-10-30 · 11:45

Race 2

Class 5 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-30 was Class 5 over 1650m. RIGHT HONOURABLE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by M Newnham, won by 1-1/4, with RED MAVERICK second and WINNING SEVEN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite MEDIC ELITE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.40.66
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly B/XB 1.40.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · M Newnham 12 10.0 1-1/4
2 12 RED MAVERICK Closed strongly Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 11 13.0 1-1/4
3 8 WINNING SEVEN Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 1 12.0 2
4 9 MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT A Badel · P C Ng 2 3.8 2-1/4
5 7 MERCHANT PRINCE B/TT B Thompson · J Richards 4 30.0 2-1/4
6 5 RUNNING AHEAD Closed strongly L Hewitson · T P Yung 10 20.0 2-1/2
7 6 MANYTHANKS FOREVER TT C Y Ho · W Y So 3 12.0 2-3/4
8 3 CHARMANDER V K Teetan · D J Hall 9 19.0 3-3/4
9 1 KASA PAPA TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 6 4.4 4-3/4
10 2 SUPER WISE DRAGON CP/TT Z Purton · W K Mo 5 6.0 7-1/2
11 4 THE CONCENTRATION Led early PC/TT L Ferraris · P F Yiu 8 32.0 13-3/4
12 11 YEABOI B/TT B Avdulla · C H Yip 7 15.0 22-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RIGHT HONOURABLE2. RED MAVERICK+1.25L3. WINNING SEVEN+2L4. MEDIC ELITE+2.25L5. MERCHANT PRINCE+2.25L6. RUNNING AHEAD+2.5L7. MANYTHANKS FOREVER+2.75L8. CHARMANDER+3.75L9. KASA PAPA+4.75L10. SUPER WISE DRAGON+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick MEDIC ELITE (22.7%) finished 4th — the winner RIGHT HONOURABLE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 MEDIC ELITE 22.7% 4.40 4
2 2 SUPER WISE DRAGON 20.0% 5.00 10
3 1 KASA PAPA 13.9% 7.20 9
4 3 CHARMANDER 9.4% 10.62 8
5 10 RIGHT HONOURABLE 7.2% 13.84 1
6 6 MANYTHANKS FOREVER 7.0% 14.32 7
7 11 YEABOI 5.8% 17.37 12
8 4 THE CONCENTRATION 3.4% 29.45 11
9 12 RED MAVERICK 3.4% 29.51 2
10 8 WINNING SEVEN 2.4% 41.52 3
11 7 MERCHANT PRINCE 2.4% 41.56 5
12 5 RUNNING AHEAD 2.4% 41.91 6
MEDIC ELITESUPER WISE DRAGONKASA PAPACHARMANDERRIGHT HONOURABLE — wonMANYTHANKS FOREVERYEABOITHE CONCENTRATIONRED MAVERICKWINNING SEVENMERCHANT PRINCERUNNING AHEAD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 100.5

PLACE

8 38.5

10 29

12 42

QUINELLA

10,12 793.5

QUINELLA PLACE

8,10 178

8,12 319

10,12 217

FORECAST

10,12 1,252

TIERCE

10,12,8 16,029

TRIO

8,10,12 3,758

FIRST 4

8,9,10,12 2,565

QUARTET

10,12,8,9 78,940

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

9/10 1,216.5

9/12 502

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

7,9,11/8,10,12 435,039