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Happy Valley · 2024-10-30 · 14:55

Race 8

Class 3 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-30 was Class 3 over 1200m. SUGAR SUGAR, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won by HD, with SWIFT ASCEND second and DIVANO third. The 3.3 favourite SWIFT ASCEND finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SUGAR SUGAR B/TT 1.09.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes 3 5.3 HD
2 9 SWIFT ASCEND B/TT A Atzeni · D Eustace 2 3.3 HD
3 3 DIVANO TT Z Purton · K W Lui 8 3.5 3/4
4 4 GUSTOSISIMO TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 10 8.5 1-3/4
5 8 BEAUTY INFINITY B Avdulla · J Size 7 13.0 1-3/4
6 1 SUPER JOY N FUN XB/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 12 15.0 2-3/4
7 5 HAPPY FAT CAT CP-/TT E C W Wong · W K Mo 5 38.0 4
8 12 BITS SUPERSTAR CP-/PC1 L Hewitson · P C Ng 9 56.0 5-1/4
9 10 SCOTCH TYCOON B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 1 9.2 5-3/4
10 6 MAGNIAC B-/CP1/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 11 110.0 5-3/4
11 11 SERGEANT PEPPER M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 4 95.0 6-1/2
12 7 HARMONY FIRE CP/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 6 80.0 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUGAR SUGAR2. SWIFT ASCEND+0.2L3. DIVANO+0.75L4. GUSTOSISIMO+1.75L5. BEAUTY INFINITY+1.75L6. SUPER JOY N FUN+2.75L7. HAPPY FAT CAT+4L8. BITS SUPERSTAR+5.25L9. SCOTCH TYCOON+5.75L10. MAGNIAC+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick DIVANO (48.2%) finished 3rd — the winner SUGAR SUGAR was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 DIVANO 48.2% 2.07 3
2 9 SWIFT ASCEND 12.9% 7.77 2
3 10 SCOTCH TYCOON 10.5% 9.53 9
4 2 SUGAR SUGAR 8.0% 12.47 1
5 1 SUPER JOY N FUN 4.9% 20.61 6
6 4 GUSTOSISIMO 4.4% 22.50 4
7 5 HAPPY FAT CAT 3.4% 29.85 7
8 7 HARMONY FIRE 2.3% 43.71 12
9 8 BEAUTY INFINITY 1.9% 53.29 5
10 11 SERGEANT PEPPER 1.7% 60.16 11
11 6 MAGNIAC 1.2% 83.06 10
12 12 BITS SUPERSTAR 0.7% 137.99 8
DIVANOSWIFT ASCENDSCOTCH TYCOONSUGAR SUGAR — wonSUPER JOY N FUNGUSTOSISIMOHAPPY FAT CATHARMONY FIREBEAUTY INFINITYSERGEANT PEPPERMAGNIACBITS SUPERSTAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 53

PLACE

2 18.5

3 15.5

9 14.5

QUINELLA

2,9 88

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 42

2,9 36

3,9 29

FORECAST

2,9 230

TIERCE

2,9,3 879

TRIO

2,3,9 124

FIRST 4

2,3,4,9 154

QUARTET

2,9,3,4 4,650

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

5/9/2 5,212

5/9/9 532

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

9,10,11/2,3,9 2,894

7TH DOUBLE

9/2 989

9/9 142

SIX UP

3,8/2,4/2,3/5,6/9,10/2,9 26,657

8/2/2/5/9/2 2,622,751

1 [Z Purton]

4 [C Fownes]