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Happy Valley · 2024-10-30 · 22:18

Race 7

Class 3 1650m Course C+3 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.73
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 DARING PURSUIT Closed strongly TT 1.39.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C Fownes 8 8.2 N
2 10 SOLEIL FIGHTER Closed strongly XB M F Poon · D A Hayes 1 6.0 N
3 11 SUPER UNICORN Closed strongly TT Z Purton · F C Lor 2 1.9 1-3/4
4 3 FRANTANCK Led early TT L Hewitson · P C Ng 4 49.0 2
5 8 JOLLY RULER Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · P F Yiu 11 31.0 2-1/2
6 6 I CAN Closed strongly H/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 3 9.1 2-1/2
7 7 IVY LEAGUE Closed strongly SR/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 5 26.0 2-3/4
8 2 NEARLY FINE Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 10 25.0 4
9 5 GALLANT WAKING C Y Ho · K W Lui 7 44.0 5-1/4
10 4 SAMARKAND CP/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 6 21.0 29-1/4
11 1 HELENE WARRIOR XB/TT H Bowman · C S Shum 9 11.0 32

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-30 was Class 3 over 1650m. DARING PURSUIT, ridden by A Badel and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with SOLEIL FIGHTER second and SUPER UNICORN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.9 favourite SUPER UNICORN finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DARING PURSUIT—2. SOLEIL FIGHTER+0.05L3. SUPER UNICORN+1.75L4. FRANTANCK+2L5. JOLLY RULER+2.5L6. I CAN+2.5L7. IVY LEAGUE+2.75L8. NEARLY FINE+4L9. GALLANT WAKING+5.25L10. SAMARKAND+29.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SUPER UNICORN (59.7%) finished 3rd — the winner DARING PURSUIT was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 SUPER UNICORN 59.7% 1.68 3
2 6 I CAN 8.7% 11.51 6
3 1 HELENE WARRIOR 7.0% 14.29 11
4 10 SOLEIL FIGHTER 6.4% 15.52 2
5 7 IVY LEAGUE 3.4% 29.33 7
6 4 SAMARKAND 3.2% 31.46 10
7 3 FRANTANCK 2.9% 34.74 4
8 8 JOLLY RULER 2.5% 39.65 5
9 5 GALLANT WAKING 2.4% 41.72 9
10 9 DARING PURSUIT 2.3% 44.23 1
11 2 NEARLY FINE 1.5% 64.81 8
SUPER UNICORNI CANHELENE WARRIORSOLEIL FIGHTERIVY LEAGUESAMARKANDFRANTANCKJOLLY RULERGALLANT WAKINGDARING PURSUIT — wonNEARLY FINE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 82

PLACE

9 24.5

10 21

11 10.5

QUINELLA

9,10 245.5

QUINELLA PLACE

9,10 77.5

9,11 37

10,11 27.5

FORECAST

9,10 571

TIERCE

9,10,11 1,289

TRIO

9,10,11 154

FIRST 4

3,9,10,11 891

QUARTET

9,10,11,3 28,341

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

5/9 890.5

5/10 70