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Happy Valley · 2024-10-30 · 12:45

Race 4

Class 5 1000m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-30 was Class 5 over 1000m. PARENTS' LOVE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3/4, with DAN ATTACK second and ACE TALENT third. The 3.4 favourite SPEEDY FORTUNE finished 6th.

Result

Official · 0.57.51
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 PARENTS' LOVE H/TT 0.57.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz 8 4.4 3/4
2 4 DAN ATTACK B1/TT H Bowman · J Richards 7 8.6 3/4
3 6 ACE TALENT H/P/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 11 10.0 3/4
4 5 CIRCUIT TEN H/P/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 5 19.0 3
5 11 PLENTIFUL H-/CP/XB/TT1 L Ferraris · P C Ng 4 14.0 3-1/2
6 3 SPEEDY FORTUNE TT A Atzeni · D Eustace 1 3.4 4-1/4
7 8 E GLORY B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 6 9.3 4-1/4
8 9 DIAMOND SOARS TT M F Poon · P F Yiu 12 14.0 4-3/4
9 10 DOUBLE SHOW B/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 10 10.0 5
10 12 GOODMANSHIP B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 2 42.0 5-1/2
11 7 HERO WARRIOR H-/PC-/B1/TT Y L Chung · K L Man 9 154.0 6-3/4
12 1 OMAKASE H1/P1 K Teetan · Y S Tsui 3 19.0 7

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PARENTS' LOVE2. DAN ATTACK+0.75L3. ACE TALENT+0.75L4. CIRCUIT TEN+3L5. PLENTIFUL+3.5L6. SPEEDY FORTUNE+4.25L7. E GLORY+4.25L8. DIAMOND SOARS+4.75L9. DOUBLE SHOW+5L10. GOODMANSHIP+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SPEEDY FORTUNE (19.8%) finished 6th — the winner PARENTS' LOVE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 SPEEDY FORTUNE 19.8% 5.04 6
2 2 PARENTS' LOVE 19.8% 5.05 1
3 11 PLENTIFUL 10.8% 9.27 5
4 4 DAN ATTACK 9.8% 10.19 2
5 8 E GLORY 7.9% 12.60 7
6 1 OMAKASE 7.7% 13.01 12
7 6 ACE TALENT 6.7% 14.92 3
8 12 GOODMANSHIP 5.1% 19.60 10
9 10 DOUBLE SHOW 4.6% 21.71 9
10 9 DIAMOND SOARS 3.8% 26.47 8
11 5 CIRCUIT TEN 3.0% 33.12 4
12 7 HERO WARRIOR 0.9% 105.66 11
SPEEDY FORTUNEPARENTS' LOVE — wonPLENTIFULDAN ATTACKE GLORYOMAKASEACE TALENTGOODMANSHIPDOUBLE SHOWDIAMOND SOARSCIRCUIT TENHERO WARRIOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 44

PLACE

2 18.5

4 25

6 40.5

QUINELLA

2,4 204

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 73

2,6 89

4,6 204

FORECAST

2,4 379

TIERCE

2,4,6 2,953

TRIO

2,4,6 887

FIRST 4

2,4,5,6 2,249

QUARTET

2,4,6,5 31,022

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,6,8/2,4,6 49,208

3RD DOUBLE

8/2 328

8/4 68.5