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Happy Valley · 2024-10-30 · 12:15

Race 3

Class 4 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-30 was Class 4 over 1200m. TEAM HAPPY, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P C Ng, won by HD, with CALIFORNIA DEEPLY second and FATAL BLOW third. The 2.9 favourite CIRCUIT DUFFY finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.10.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 TEAM HAPPY B 1.10.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P C Ng 2 4.0 HD
2 3 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 7 5.9 HD
3 6 FATAL BLOW L Ferraris · M Newnham 8 14.0 1
4 11 CRYSTAL POWERFUL B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 12 71.0 1-1/2
5 10 WORLD HERO B A Badel · D A Hayes 4 47.0 1-1/2
6 5 CIRCUIT DUFFY Z Purton · F C Lor 6 2.9 1-3/4
7 9 TELECOM POWER B K De Melo · Y S Tsui 9 26.0 2-1/2
8 4 EXUBERANT B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 5 16.0 2-3/4
9 7 TOP SCORER K Teetan · J Size 11 5.5 3-1/2
10 2 NATURAL HIGH B Thompson · D J Hall 1 104.0 7-3/4
11 12 IVICTORIAM B/XB/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 10 40.0 10-3/4
12 1 HIGH PERCENTAGE TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 3 29.0 14-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TEAM HAPPY2. CALIFORNIA DEEPLY+0.2L3. FATAL BLOW+1L4. CRYSTAL POWERFUL+1.5L5. WORLD HERO+1.5L6. CIRCUIT DUFFY+1.75L7. TELECOM POWER+2.5L8. EXUBERANT+2.75L9. TOP SCORER+3.5L10. NATURAL HIGH+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick CIRCUIT DUFFY (35.1%) finished 6th — the winner TEAM HAPPY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 CIRCUIT DUFFY 35.1% 2.85 6
2 8 TEAM HAPPY 23.5% 4.26 1
3 7 TOP SCORER 7.6% 13.08 9
4 3 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY 7.4% 13.48 2
5 1 HIGH PERCENTAGE 5.7% 17.44 12
6 6 FATAL BLOW 5.5% 18.13 3
7 4 EXUBERANT 4.1% 24.39 8
8 10 WORLD HERO 3.6% 27.45 5
9 11 CRYSTAL POWERFUL 2.8% 35.22 4
10 9 TELECOM POWER 2.1% 47.18 7
11 12 IVICTORIAM 1.6% 62.22 11
12 2 NATURAL HIGH 0.8% 125.83 10
CIRCUIT DUFFYTEAM HAPPY — wonTOP SCORERCALIFORNIA DEEPLYHIGH PERCENTAGEFATAL BLOWEXUBERANTWORLD HEROCRYSTAL POWERFULTELECOM POWERIVICTORIAMNATURAL HIGH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 40.5

PLACE

3 18.5

6 50

8 15.5

QUINELLA

3,8 103

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 127.5

3,8 40.5

6,8 101

FORECAST

8,3 207

TIERCE

8,3,6 2,409

TRIO

3,6,8 481

FIRST 4

3,6,8,11 4,831

QUARTET

8,3,6,11 52,772

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

10/3 98

10/8 596