Happy Valley · 2024-10-30 · 12:15
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-30 was Class 4 over 1200m. TEAM HAPPY, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P C Ng, won by HD, with CALIFORNIA DEEPLY second and FATAL BLOW third. The 2.9 favourite CIRCUIT DUFFY finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | TEAM HAPPY B 1.10.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 2 | 4.0 | HD |
| 2 | 3 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 7 | 5.9 | HD |
| 3 | 6 | FATAL BLOW L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 8 | 14.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 11 | CRYSTAL POWERFUL B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 12 | 71.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 10 | WORLD HERO B A Badel · D A Hayes | A Badel | D A Hayes | 4 | 47.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | CIRCUIT DUFFY Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 6 | 2.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 9 | TELECOM POWER B K De Melo · Y S Tsui | K De Melo | Y S Tsui | 9 | 26.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | EXUBERANT B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 5 | 16.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | TOP SCORER K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 11 | 5.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 2 | NATURAL HIGH B Thompson · D J Hall | B Thompson | D J Hall | 1 | 104.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | IVICTORIAM B/XB/TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 10 | 40.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 12 | 1 | HIGH PERCENTAGE TT L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 3 | 29.0 | 14-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | CIRCUIT DUFFY | 35.1% | 2.85 | 6 |
| 2 | 8 | TEAM HAPPY | 23.5% | 4.26 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | TOP SCORER | 7.6% | 13.08 | 9 |
| 4 | 3 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY | 7.4% | 13.48 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | HIGH PERCENTAGE | 5.7% | 17.44 | 12 |
| 6 | 6 | FATAL BLOW | 5.5% | 18.13 | 3 |
| 7 | 4 | EXUBERANT | 4.1% | 24.39 | 8 |
| 8 | 10 | WORLD HERO | 3.6% | 27.45 | 5 |
| 9 | 11 | CRYSTAL POWERFUL | 2.8% | 35.22 | 4 |
| 10 | 9 | TELECOM POWER | 2.1% | 47.18 | 7 |
| 11 | 12 | IVICTORIAM | 1.6% | 62.22 | 11 |
| 12 | 2 | NATURAL HIGH | 0.8% | 125.83 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 40.5
PLACE
3 18.5
6 50
8 15.5
QUINELLA
3,8 103
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 127.5
3,8 40.5
6,8 101
FORECAST
8,3 207
TIERCE
8,3,6 2,409
TRIO
3,6,8 481
FIRST 4
3,6,8,11 4,831
QUARTET
8,3,6,11 52,772
All pools (1 more)
2ND DOUBLE
10/3 98
10/8 596