Sha Tin · 2024-11-09
Race 10
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-11-09 was Class 3 over 1600m. VOYAGE SAMURAI, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with SILO second and STAR MAC third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | VOYAGE SAMURAI Closed strongly CP 1.33.89 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 4 | 2.8 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 8 | SILO Closed strongly CP L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 6 | 5.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 9 | STAR MAC Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 1 | 10.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 10 | PRINCE OF PORTY Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 2 | 14.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 11 | AMAZING VICTORY Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 7 | 11.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 2 | CHING Closed strongly L Hewitson · C W Chang | L Hewitson | C W Chang | 3 | 35.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | PRAY FOR MIR CP M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 8 | 17.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | FALLON Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 9 | 17.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 14 | VOLCANIC SPARK Closed strongly B M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 13 | 34.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 10 | 12 | FLAGSHIP WARRIOR Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 5 | 17.0 | 3 |
| 11 | 13 | FUN TOGETHER Led early CP/TT A Hamelin · T P Yung | A Hamelin | T P Yung | 14 | 46.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 4 | SWEET ENCOUNTER B2 B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 10 | 112.0 | 7 |
| 13 | 1 | SPEED DRAGON B A Atzeni · K W Lui | A Atzeni | K W Lui | 11 | 61.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 14 | 5 | TURIN STARSPANGLED TT Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 12 | 8.1 | 11-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | VOYAGE SAMURAI | 18.1% | 5.51 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | TURIN STARSPANGLED | 17.4% | 5.76 | 14 |
| 3 | 8 | SILO | 9.7% | 10.29 | 2 |
| 4 | 9 | STAR MAC | 9.0% | 11.12 | 3 |
| 5 | 7 | FALLON | 6.9% | 14.57 | 8 |
| 6 | 6 | PRAY FOR MIR | 6.8% | 14.73 | 7 |
| 7 | 11 | AMAZING VICTORY | 6.2% | 16.01 | 5 |
| 8 | 2 | CHING | 6.2% | 16.21 | 6 |
| 9 | 10 | PRINCE OF PORTY | 4.8% | 20.86 | 4 |
| 10 | 1 | SPEED DRAGON | 4.6% | 21.93 | 13 |
| 11 | 14 | VOLCANIC SPARK | 3.6% | 28.05 | 9 |
| 12 | 12 | FLAGSHIP WARRIOR | 2.9% | 35.02 | 10 |
| 13 | 13 | FUN TOGETHER | 2.5% | 39.72 | 11 |
| 14 | 4 | SWEET ENCOUNTER | 1.4% | 71.14 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 28
PLACE
3 14
8 18.5
9 26
QUINELLA
3,8 87.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 41
3,9 39
8,9 87
FORECAST
3,8 116
TIERCE
3,8,9 377
TRIO
3,8,9 141
FIRST 4
3,8,9,10 736
QUARTET
3,8,9,10 5,586
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
11/4/3 1,226
11/4/8 524
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
4,7,12/3,8,9 2,565
9TH DOUBLE
4/3 47
4/8 31
SIX UP
5,8/3,6/8,11/7,11/4,12/3,8 134
8/6/8/11/4/3 51,678
1 [Z Purton] —
1 [F C Lor] —