Sha Tin · 2024-11-09
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-11-09 was Class 4 over 1400m. STRATHPEFFER, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Whyte, won by NOSE, with LEGEND ST PAUL'S second and FASHION LEGEND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite LEGEND ST PAUL'S finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | STRATHPEFFER Closed strongly B 1.21.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 2 | 10.0 | NOSE |
| 2 | 7 | LEGEND ST PAUL'S Closed strongly CP1/TT1 K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 1 | 3.2 | NOSE |
| 3 | 3 | FASHION LEGEND Closed strongly XB1/TT A Atzeni · D Eustace | A Atzeni | D Eustace | 5 | 12.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 12 | YOU'REMYEVERYTHING Closed strongly K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 8 | 25.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | NEBRASKAN Led early PC B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 3 | 22.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 5 | JUBILANT WINNER Closed strongly CP/TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 12 | 3.9 | 4 |
| 7 | 8 | GOLD MASTER Closed strongly B C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 11 | 30.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | RUN RAN RUN B2/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 7 | 70.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 2 | SUNNY DA BEST TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 4 | 12.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 10 | QINGYUAN STAR CP/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 13 | 153.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 14 | FIGHT TIME B A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 6 | 4.8 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | DEAL COMPLETED B/TT H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 10 | 25.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 13 | 9 | SKY DEEP Closed strongly L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 9 | 135.0 | 20-1/4 |
| 14 | 13 | MASTER STROKE B Thompson · C H Yip | B Thompson | C H Yip | 14 | 165.0 | 25-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | LEGEND ST PAUL'S | 23.6% | 4.24 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | JUBILANT WINNER | 15.8% | 6.34 | 6 |
| 3 | 9 | SKY DEEP | 11.0% | 9.09 | 13 |
| 4 | 14 | FIGHT TIME | 8.4% | 11.90 | 11 |
| 5 | 11 | STRATHPEFFER | 6.7% | 14.99 | 1 |
| 6 | 2 | SUNNY DA BEST | 6.5% | 15.46 | 9 |
| 7 | 8 | GOLD MASTER | 5.3% | 18.92 | 7 |
| 8 | 4 | NEBRASKAN | 5.3% | 19.04 | 5 |
| 9 | 6 | DEAL COMPLETED | 4.6% | 21.83 | 12 |
| 10 | 3 | FASHION LEGEND | 3.9% | 25.62 | 3 |
| 11 | 12 | YOU'REMYEVERYTHING | 3.2% | 31.03 | 4 |
| 12 | 10 | QINGYUAN STAR | 2.9% | 34.81 | 10 |
| 13 | 1 | RUN RAN RUN | 1.6% | 62.00 | 8 |
| 14 | 13 | MASTER STROKE | 1.4% | 72.65 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 109
PLACE
3 32.5
7 15.5
11 28.5
QUINELLA
7,11 187.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 91.5
3,11 174.5
7,11 61.5
FORECAST
11,7 504
TIERCE
11,7,3 4,939
TRIO
3,7,11 732
FIRST 4
3,7,11,12 3,068
QUARTET
11,7,3,12 54,786
All pools (2 more)
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
2,8,11/3,7,11 83,374
7TH DOUBLE
8/7 31
8/11 576