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Sha Tin · 2024-11-09

Race 3

Class 4 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-11-09 was Class 4 over 1200m. PATCH OF TIME, ridden by K Teetan and trained by W K Mo, won by 1/2, with MASTER PHOENIX second and ROMAN CROWN third. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 PATCH OF TIME H 1.09.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · W K Mo 10 2.9 1/2
2 8 MASTER PHOENIX B1/TT1 C Y Ho · D Eustace 11 18.0 1/2
3 2 ROMAN CROWN Z Purton · P C Ng 5 6.5 3/4
4 3 CITY THUNDER TT L Hewitson · W Y So 1 14.0 1-1/4
5 1 MASTER TRILLION CP K C Leung · F C Lor 13 10.0 1-1/2
6 11 RACINGRACE XB B Avdulla · D J Hall 3 10.0 1-3/4
7 14 UNIVERSAL BLAZE H-/B1/E1/TT1 A Badel · J Size 2 70.0 2
8 10 MEANINGFUL DRAGON B C L Chau · K W Lui 6 78.0 2-1/2
9 6 GOLDENTRONICMIGHTY SR1/TT1 M L Yeung · J Richards 7 86.0 3
10 7 HE WAS YOU TT1 Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 7.8 3
11 4 EURO ROCKS B-/SR1/TT M F Poon · C H Yip 4 13.0 4-3/4
12 5 BRILLIANT FIRE H/XB H Bentley · D J Whyte 14 97.0 5-1/2
13 13 LIFE OF STONE CP- K De Melo · T P Yung 9 97.0 5-1/2
14 9 MONARCH COUNTY TT H Bowman · C Fownes 12 7.1 5-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PATCH OF TIME2. MASTER PHOENIX+0.5L3. ROMAN CROWN+0.75L4. CITY THUNDER+1.25L5. MASTER TRILLION+1.5L6. RACINGRACE+1.75L7. UNIVERSAL BLAZE+2L8. MEANINGFUL DRAGON+2.5L9. GOLDENTRONICMIGHTY+3L10. HE WAS YOU+3L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick MASTER TRILLION (16.4%) finished 5th — the winner PATCH OF TIME was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 MASTER TRILLION 16.4% 6.09 5
2 12 PATCH OF TIME 13.1% 7.64 1
3 9 MONARCH COUNTY 11.7% 8.51 14
4 8 MASTER PHOENIX 11.1% 8.99 2
5 7 HE WAS YOU 8.5% 11.82 10
6 4 EURO ROCKS 8.2% 12.27 11
7 2 ROMAN CROWN 7.7% 12.96 3
8 11 RACINGRACE 5.3% 18.81 6
9 5 BRILLIANT FIRE 5.2% 19.26 12
10 6 GOLDENTRONICMIGHTY 4.5% 22.37 9
11 3 CITY THUNDER 3.2% 31.73 4
12 10 MEANINGFUL DRAGON 2.5% 40.06 8
13 13 LIFE OF STONE 1.6% 61.96 13
14 14 UNIVERSAL BLAZE 1.1% 94.64 7
MASTER TRILLIONPATCH OF TIME — wonMONARCH COUNTYMASTER PHOENIXHE WAS YOUEURO ROCKSROMAN CROWNRACINGRACEBRILLIANT FIREGOLDENTRONICMIGHTYCITY THUNDERMEANINGFUL DRAGONLIFE OF STONEUNIVERSAL BLAZE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 29.5

PLACE

2 21.5

8 51.5

12 13.5

QUINELLA

8,12 293

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 206.5

2,12 38

8,12 112

FORECAST

12,8 437

TIERCE

12,8,2 2,256

TRIO

2,8,12 506

FIRST 4

2,3,8,12 1,814

QUARTET

12,8,2,3 31,377

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

6/8 203

6/12 333.5