Sha Tin · 2024-11-09
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | JOYFUL PROSPERITY Closed strongly B/TT 2.01.86 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 8 | 2.3 | SH |
| 2 | 9 | JUBILATION Closed strongly V M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 2 | 9.2 | SH |
| 3 | 1 | CHARITY GAIN Closed strongly XB/TT C Y Ho · D Eustace | C Y Ho | D Eustace | 4 | 3.8 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | AFFORDABLE Closed strongly CP-/B2/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes | C L Chau | D A Hayes | 14 | 84.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 12 | MANAGEMENT FOLKS Closed strongly B- M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 13 | 33.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 14 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM Led early A Badel · Y S Tsui | A Badel | Y S Tsui | 1 | 8.8 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB/TT M Chadwick · K H Ting | M Chadwick | K H Ting | 10 | 25.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 7 | HAPPY HERO B L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 12 | 24.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 13 | STORM WINNER TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 7 | 16.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 10 | CONFRINGO CP/TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 5 | 55.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | PERFECT PAIRING B H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 9 | 22.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 11 | LITTLE FAIRY B/TT B Avdulla · P F Yiu | B Avdulla | P F Yiu | 3 | 31.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 4 | PRINCIPLED B/TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 11 | 103.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 14 | 2 | SILVER KING P/H2/TT B Thompson · F C Lor | B Thompson | F C Lor | 6 | 119.0 | 17-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-11-09 was Class 4 over 2000m. JOYFUL PROSPERITY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with JUBILATION second and CHARITY GAIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | JOYFUL PROSPERITY | 24.2% | 4.13 | 1 |
| 2 | 14 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM | 19.2% | 5.21 | 6 |
| 3 | 1 | CHARITY GAIN | 16.7% | 5.99 | 3 |
| 4 | 13 | STORM WINNER | 7.3% | 13.70 | 9 |
| 5 | 9 | JUBILATION | 5.7% | 17.50 | 2 |
| 6 | 5 | PERFECT PAIRING | 4.5% | 22.25 | 11 |
| 7 | 7 | HAPPY HERO | 4.4% | 22.86 | 8 |
| 8 | 12 | MANAGEMENT FOLKS | 4.2% | 23.89 | 5 |
| 9 | 10 | CONFRINGO | 3.8% | 26.23 | 10 |
| 10 | 3 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET | 3.6% | 27.77 | 7 |
| 11 | 11 | LITTLE FAIRY | 3.3% | 29.88 | 12 |
| 12 | 6 | AFFORDABLE | 1.4% | 69.59 | 4 |
| 13 | 2 | SILVER KING | 1.2% | 85.43 | 14 |
| 14 | 4 | PRINCIPLED | 0.4% | 226.25 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 23
PLACE
1 16
8 13.5
9 24
QUINELLA
8,9 100.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,8 24.5
1,9 54.5
8,9 38.5
FORECAST
8,9 170
TIERCE
8,9,1 593
TRIO
1,8,9 121
FIRST 4
1,6,8,9 1,466
QUARTET
8,9,1,6 20,465
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,8,12/1,8,9 8,050
3RD DOUBLE
12/8 136.5
12/9 65