Sha Tin · 2024-11-09
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-11-09 was Class 4 over 1650m. EXCEL WONGCHOY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by P C Ng, won by 2, with JUMBO FORTUNE second and NEVER PETER OUT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.5 favourite JUMBO FORTUNE finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | EXCEL WONGCHOY Closed strongly H/TT 1.38.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · P C Ng | C Y Ho | P C Ng | 4 | 5.6 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | JUMBO FORTUNE Closed strongly B-/PC2/TT K Teetan · D Eustace | K Teetan | D Eustace | 5 | 5.5 | 2 |
| 3 | 11 | NEVER PETER OUT Closed strongly CP/TT M L Yeung · F C Lor | M L Yeung | F C Lor | 7 | 6.3 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | SIXTH GENERATION Closed strongly V-/TT K C Leung · J Richards | K C Leung | J Richards | 14 | 43.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 13 | ACA POWER Closed strongly CP A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 10 | 13.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 3 | FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B B Thompson · C W Chang | B Thompson | C W Chang | 6 | 8.5 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | FOREMOST TEDDY V/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 11 | 8.3 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | MOJAVE DESERT Closed strongly B L Ferraris · D A Hayes | L Ferraris | D A Hayes | 8 | 19.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | ATOMIC BEAUTY Led early V/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 2 | 9.9 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | VIVA HUNTER TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 3 | 24.0 | 9 |
| 11 | 14 | CURRAHEE CP/TT Y L Chung · W K Mo | Y L Chung | W K Mo | 12 | 35.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 12 | 4 | HIGHLAND RAHY CP/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 9 | 9.5 | 15 |
| 13 | 7 | ONLY U B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 13 | 43.0 | 16-3/4 |
| 14 | 2 | TRUE GENIUS H-/SR/TT- H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 1 | 110.0 | 30-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | FOREMOST TEDDY | 16.5% | 6.05 | 7 |
| 2 | 4 | HIGHLAND RAHY | 12.2% | 8.18 | 12 |
| 3 | 5 | JUMBO FORTUNE | 11.8% | 8.44 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | EXCEL WONGCHOY | 10.7% | 9.38 | 1 |
| 5 | 11 | NEVER PETER OUT | 10.2% | 9.78 | 3 |
| 6 | 10 | ATOMIC BEAUTY | 7.3% | 13.65 | 9 |
| 7 | 6 | SIXTH GENERATION | 5.9% | 16.87 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | FOREVER FOLKS | 5.4% | 18.46 | 6 |
| 9 | 7 | ONLY U | 5.1% | 19.59 | 13 |
| 10 | 13 | ACA POWER | 4.7% | 21.32 | 5 |
| 11 | 9 | VIVA HUNTER | 4.2% | 24.02 | 10 |
| 12 | 14 | CURRAHEE | 2.2% | 45.24 | 11 |
| 13 | 2 | TRUE GENIUS | 2.0% | 50.81 | 14 |
| 14 | 1 | MOJAVE DESERT | 1.7% | 58.56 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 56
PLACE
5 24
8 21.5
11 23
QUINELLA
5,8 204
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 75
5,11 99
8,11 67.5
FORECAST
8,5 373
TIERCE
8,5,11 1,896
TRIO
5,8,11 376
FIRST 4
5,6,8,11 4,823
QUARTET
8,5,11,6 53,876
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
12/8/5 131
12/8/8 411
4TH DOUBLE
8/5 38.5
8/8 127.5