Sha Tin · 2024-11-24 · 08:45
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-11-24 was Class 3 over 1400m. CHARMING LEGEND, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 1, with GLORIOUS SUCCESS second and KA YING SUPERB third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite LUCY IN THE SKY finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | CHARMING LEGEND Closed strongly 1.21.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 7 | 4.5 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | GLORIOUS SUCCESS Closed strongly B1/TT1 A Atzeni · D Eustace | A Atzeni | D Eustace | 1 | 22.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 13 | KA YING SUPERB Closed strongly P-/H/XB1 M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 8 | 16.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | MICKLEY Closed strongly H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 6 | 17.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | LUCY IN THE SKY H K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 10 | 3.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | KEMPES Closed strongly B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 3 | 66.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 14 | THE HEIR Closed strongly B-/TT L Hewitson · C Fownes | L Hewitson | C Fownes | 11 | 21.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | BEAUTY GLORY Led early CP/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 2 | 19.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 11 | FIRST LOVE Closed strongly TT M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 12 | 16.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 8 | ALSONSO J McDonald · M Newnham | J McDonald | M Newnham | 14 | 6.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | WINNING GOLD H/CP1/TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 4 | 6.2 | 6 |
| 12 | 6 | BLESSED NATION XB/TT1 H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 9 | 95.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 13 | 4 | AERIS NOVA B/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 5 | 25.0 | 8 |
| — | 0 | PRESTIGE RICKY C L Chau · P F Yiu | C L Chau | P F Yiu | — | — | — |
| — | 12 | STAR GLOW XB/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 13 | 68.0 | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LUCY IN THE SKY | 22.7% | 4.40 | 5 |
| 2 | 7 | CHARMING LEGEND | 18.7% | 5.35 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | ALSONSO | 15.2% | 6.56 | 10 |
| 4 | 5 | WINNING GOLD | 12.2% | 8.20 | 11 |
| 5 | 2 | MICKLEY | 10.9% | 9.14 | 4 |
| 6 | 11 | FIRST LOVE | 4.2% | 23.70 | 9 |
| 7 | 10 | GLORIOUS SUCCESS | 3.5% | 28.76 | 2 |
| 8 | 14 | THE HEIR | 3.3% | 29.98 | 7 |
| 9 | 9 | BEAUTY GLORY | 2.8% | 35.86 | 8 |
| 10 | 4 | AERIS NOVA | 2.2% | 44.87 | 13 |
| 11 | 3 | KEMPES | 1.9% | 53.69 | 6 |
| 12 | 13 | KA YING SUPERB | 1.3% | 74.63 | 3 |
| 13 | 6 | BLESSED NATION | 1.0% | 101.05 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 45.5
PLACE
7 19
10 55
13 53.5
QUINELLA
7,10 578.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,10 176
7,13 157
10,13 561.5
FORECAST
7,10 1,079
TIERCE
7,10,13 15,839
TRIO
7,10,13 2,999
FIRST 4
2,7,10,13 8,894
QUARTET
7,10,13,2 135,323
All pools (2 more)
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
8,10,12/7,10,13 145,979
7TH DOUBLE
8/7 252
8/10 127.5