Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2024-11-24 · 05:50

Race 3

Class 4 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-11-24 was Class 4 over 1200m. HONG LOK GOLF, ridden by H Bentley and trained by W Y So, won by 1/2, with SKY JOY second and NEW FUTURE FOLKS third. The 2.5 favourite PACKING ANGEL finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.09.33
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 HONG LOK GOLF TT1 1.09.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · W Y So 1 43.0 1/2
2 10 SKY JOY C L Chau · P F Yiu 3 19.0 1/2
3 2 NEW FUTURE FOLKS B1 B Thompson · C W Chang 5 3.1 2-1/2
4 6 BLUE BARON XB1/TT1 K C Leung · W K Mo 8 13.0 2-3/4
5 11 GREAT SPIRIT M F Poon · C H Yip 6 6.7 2-3/4
6 1 ROMAN CROWN B1 J McDonald · P C Ng 10 17.0 2-3/4
7 3 PACKING ANGEL CP1/TT Z Purton · K W Lui 11 2.5 3-3/4
8 4 ANOTHER WORLD L Hewitson · T P Yung 2 32.0 5-1/2
9 12 SKY PROPHET CP-/TT A Badel · C Fownes 4 17.0 6-1/4
10 8 MAX QUE B1/TT1 L Ferraris · M Newnham 7 25.0 7
11 9 SIKANDAR SR1/TT1 M Chadwick · D J Whyte 9 93.0 8-3/4
12 5 BINGO BABE B1 K Teetan · Y S Tsui 12 86.0 12

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HONG LOK GOLF2. SKY JOY+0.5L3. NEW FUTURE FOLKS+2.5L4. BLUE BARON+2.75L5. GREAT SPIRIT+2.75L6. ROMAN CROWN+2.75L7. PACKING ANGEL+3.75L8. ANOTHER WORLD+5.5L9. SKY PROPHET+6.25L10. MAX QUE+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick PACKING ANGEL (25.8%) finished 7th — the winner HONG LOK GOLF was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 PACKING ANGEL 25.8% 3.87 7
2 2 NEW FUTURE FOLKS 18.2% 5.49 3
3 11 GREAT SPIRIT 11.4% 8.76 5
4 8 MAX QUE 7.9% 12.62 10
5 12 SKY PROPHET 6.1% 16.33 9
6 10 SKY JOY 5.9% 16.84 2
7 1 ROMAN CROWN 5.8% 17.13 6
8 5 BINGO BABE 5.2% 19.10 12
9 7 HONG LOK GOLF 4.2% 23.58 1
10 6 BLUE BARON 4.0% 24.91 4
11 9 SIKANDAR 3.2% 31.41 11
12 4 ANOTHER WORLD 2.0% 48.83 8
PACKING ANGELNEW FUTURE FOLKSGREAT SPIRITMAX QUESKY PROPHETSKY JOYROMAN CROWNBINGO BABEHONG LOK GOLF — wonBLUE BARONSIKANDARANOTHER WORLD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 435

PLACE

2 12.5

7 78

10 54

QUINELLA

7,10 3,417.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 217.5

2,10 135.5

7,10 808.5

FORECAST

7,10 5,868

TIERCE

7,10,2 37,609

TRIO

2,7,10 4,292

FIRST 4

2,6,7,10 11,098

QUARTET

7,10,2,6 263,101

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

4/7 6,319

4/10 685