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Sha Tin · 2024-11-24 · 17:53

Race 10

Class 3 1600m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.34.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 SKY TRUST Closed strongly H/TT 1.34.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · C Fownes 14 6.4 HD
2 12 AMAZING VICTORY Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · W Y So 12 13.0 HD
3 10 GOLDEN ARTIE Closed strongly K Teetan · P F Yiu 1 15.0 N
4 6 FALLON Closed strongly B/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 4 11.0 3/4
5 7 LO PAN SPIRIT Led early B H Bentley · K H Ting 5 6.1 1-1/2
6 3 PRESTIGE ALWAYS B J McDonald · P C Ng 2 6.5 2-3/4
7 2 LUPO SOLITARIO Closed strongly CP1 K C Leung · F C Lor 6 20.0 2-3/4
8 11 STELLAR SWIFT Closed strongly CP/TT A Atzeni · D A Hayes 3 11.0 3
9 8 NAMJONG KINGDOM TT B Avdulla · C S Shum 7 34.0 3-1/2
10 13 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE A Badel · M Newnham 9 4.0 5-3/4
11 1 CHING CP1 H Bowman · C W Chang 8 21.0 6
12 4 UNIVERSAL HORIZON Closed strongly B C L Chau · K W Lui 13 53.0 9-1/2
13 14 DILBAGH XB M Chadwick · D J Whyte 11 145.0 10
14 5 SWEET ENCOUNTER B A Hamelin · J Size 10 47.0 12-1/2
— 0 GOOD LUCK BABE B Thompson · D Eustace — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-11-24 was Class 3 over 1600m. SKY TRUST, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by C Fownes, won by HD, with AMAZING VICTORY second and GOLDEN ARTIE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite ARMOUR WAR EAGLE finished 10th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SKY TRUST—2. AMAZING VICTORY+0.2L3. GOLDEN ARTIE+0.05L4. FALLON+0.75L5. LO PAN SPIRIT+1.5L6. PRESTIGE ALWAYS+2.75L7. LUPO SOLITARIO+2.75L8. STELLAR SWIFT+3L9. NAMJONG KINGDOM+3.5L10. ARMOUR WAR EAGLE+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick PRESTIGE ALWAYS (21.8%) finished 6th — the winner SKY TRUST was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 PRESTIGE ALWAYS 21.8% 4.59 6
2 9 SKY TRUST 16.2% 6.17 1
3 13 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE 12.5% 8.03 10
4 11 STELLAR SWIFT 9.6% 10.40 8
5 6 FALLON 6.9% 14.53 4
6 7 LO PAN SPIRIT 6.3% 15.93 5
7 2 LUPO SOLITARIO 5.5% 18.20 7
8 1 CHING 5.3% 18.69 11
9 12 AMAZING VICTORY 5.2% 19.21 2
10 10 GOLDEN ARTIE 4.1% 24.43 3
11 4 UNIVERSAL HORIZON 2.6% 38.47 12
12 5 SWEET ENCOUNTER 1.9% 53.34 14
13 8 NAMJONG KINGDOM 1.5% 67.16 9
14 14 DILBAGH 0.7% 152.33 13
PRESTIGE ALWAYSSKY TRUST — wonARMOUR WAR EAGLESTELLAR SWIFTFALLONLO PAN SPIRITLUPO SOLITARIOCHINGAMAZING VICTORYGOLDEN ARTIEUNIVERSAL HORIZONSWEET ENCOUNTERNAMJONG KINGDOMDILBAGH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 64.5

PLACE

9 23

10 39

12 35.5

QUINELLA

9,12 463.5

QUINELLA PLACE

9,10 155.5

9,12 134.5

10,12 239.5

FORECAST

9,12 663

TIERCE

9,12,10 8,136

TRIO

9,10,12 1,490

FIRST 4

6,9,10,12 3,272

QUARTET

9,12,10,6 56,084

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

7/5/9 2,021

7/5/12 1,003

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,5/9,10,12 48,307

9TH DOUBLE

5/9 434

5/12 149

SIX UP

7/7/8/7/5/9 2,788,402

7,11/3,7/8,12/7,10/2,5/9,12 11,905

3 [K C Leung] —

8 [W K Mo] —