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Sha Tin · 2024-11-24 · 09:20

Race 9

Class 3 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2024-11-24 was Class 3 over 1200m. SWIFT ASCEND, ridden by J McDonald and trained by D Eustace, won by 2-1/4, with SAVVY BRILLIANT second and FULL CREDIT third. The 2.6 favourite SAVVY BRILLIANT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.45
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 SWIFT ASCEND B/TT 1.08.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · D Eustace 5 6.9 2-1/4
2 2 SAVVY BRILLIANT XB/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 3 2.6 2-1/4
3 1 FULL CREDIT L Hewitson · M Newnham 1 6.1 3
4 9 AURORA LADY CP/TT M F Poon · P C Ng 9 16.0 3
5 10 ENDUED TT1 C Y Ho · J Richards 12 50.0 3-1/4
6 8 SUGAR BALL TT K C Leung · W K Mo 11 14.0 3-3/4
7 7 RIGHTEOUS ARION TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 2 18.0 4-1/4
8 11 HAROLD WIN B/XB A Atzeni · K W Lui 10 6.5 4-3/4
9 6 GAMEPLAYER ELITE SR/XB1 H Bentley · D J Whyte 8 94.0 7-1/4
10 12 SKY FOREVER B/TT M L Yeung · K L Man 4 45.0 7-1/2
11 3 LADY'S CHOICE B/H K Teetan · C W Chang 6 12.0 7-1/2
12 4 THE STORM TT H Bowman · C Fownes 7 21.0 81-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SWIFT ASCEND2. SAVVY BRILLIANT+2.25L3. FULL CREDIT+3L4. AURORA LADY+3L5. ENDUED+3.25L6. SUGAR BALL+3.75L7. RIGHTEOUS ARION+4.25L8. HAROLD WIN+4.75L9. GAMEPLAYER ELITE+7.25L10. SKY FOREVER+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SAVVY BRILLIANT (35.8%) finished 2nd — the winner SWIFT ASCEND was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SAVVY BRILLIANT 35.8% 2.79 2
2 5 SWIFT ASCEND 10.2% 9.84 1
3 11 HAROLD WIN 10.0% 9.98 8
4 7 RIGHTEOUS ARION 9.5% 10.48 7
5 9 AURORA LADY 6.4% 15.67 4
6 1 FULL CREDIT 6.1% 16.38 3
7 8 SUGAR BALL 5.9% 17.01 6
8 3 LADY'S CHOICE 5.6% 17.91 11
9 10 ENDUED 3.0% 33.75 5
10 4 THE STORM 2.8% 35.92 12
11 12 SKY FOREVER 2.6% 38.35 10
12 6 GAMEPLAYER ELITE 2.2% 46.22 9
SAVVY BRILLIANTSWIFT ASCEND — wonHAROLD WINRIGHTEOUS ARIONAURORA LADYFULL CREDITSUGAR BALLLADY'S CHOICEENDUEDTHE STORMSKY FOREVERGAMEPLAYER ELITE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 69.5

PLACE

1 18

2 14.5

5 21

QUINELLA

2,5 86

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 33

1,5 61

2,5 38

FORECAST

5,2 227

TIERCE

5,2,1 929

TRIO

1,2,5 131

FIRST 4

1,2,5,9 516

QUARTET

5,2,1,9 10,913

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

7/2 20.5

7/5 316.5