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Sha Tin · 2024-11-24 · 08:15

Race 7

Class 2 1600m Course C 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-11-24 was Class 2 over 1600m. PATCH OF THETA, ridden by K C Leung and trained by K W Lui, won by 2-1/4, with VOYAGE SAMURAI second and SUNLIGHT POWER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.33.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 PATCH OF THETA Closed strongly XB 1.33.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · K W Lui 2 4.8 2-1/4
2 12 VOYAGE SAMURAI Led early CP M L Yeung · F C Lor 1 5.2 2-1/4
3 10 SUNLIGHT POWER Closed strongly CP/H A Hamelin · P F Yiu 10 7.0 2-1/2
4 14 TOP GUN Closed strongly M Chadwick · F C Lor 6 56.0 3
5 2 GREEN N WHITE Closed strongly M F Poon · P F Yiu 4 6.0 3
6 3 HELENE FEELING Closed strongly B/TT B Avdulla · C S Shum 11 35.0 3-1/2
7 7 KARMA Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 13 8.3 4
8 11 THE BEST PEACH Closed strongly TT B Thompson · A S Cruz 9 87.0 4
9 4 ATULLIBIGEAL Closed strongly B/H/XB Z Purton · D J Hall 8 26.0 4-1/2
10 9 YOUNG CHAMPION K Teetan · J Size 5 5.0 4-3/4
11 13 ROMANTIC THOR CP1/XB1/TT1 A Atzeni · C S Shum 7 27.0 5-3/4
12 6 TELECOM FIGHTERS P N Wong · Y S Tsui 3 46.0 6
13 1 HEALTHY HAPPY V/TT A Badel · F C Lor 12 69.0 12
14 5 OUTGATE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 14 59.0 14-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PATCH OF THETA2. VOYAGE SAMURAI+2.25L3. SUNLIGHT POWER+2.5L4. TOP GUN+3L5. GREEN N WHITE+3L6. HELENE FEELING+3.5L7. KARMA+4L8. THE BEST PEACH+4L9. ATULLIBIGEAL+4.5L10. YOUNG CHAMPION+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick VOYAGE SAMURAI (22.4%) finished 2nd — the winner PATCH OF THETA was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 VOYAGE SAMURAI 22.4% 4.46 2
2 2 GREEN N WHITE 21.6% 4.63 5
3 10 SUNLIGHT POWER 10.2% 9.82 3
4 9 YOUNG CHAMPION 9.5% 10.50 10
5 8 PATCH OF THETA 9.0% 11.12 1
6 4 ATULLIBIGEAL 6.6% 15.12 9
7 7 KARMA 5.3% 18.73 7
8 6 TELECOM FIGHTERS 3.6% 28.14 12
9 14 TOP GUN 2.4% 41.89 4
10 13 ROMANTIC THOR 2.4% 42.01 11
11 5 OUTGATE 2.3% 42.82 14
12 1 HEALTHY HAPPY 1.8% 55.09 13
13 3 HELENE FEELING 1.7% 57.23 6
14 11 THE BEST PEACH 1.1% 89.70 8
VOYAGE SAMURAIGREEN N WHITESUNLIGHT POWERYOUNG CHAMPIONPATCH OF THETA — wonATULLIBIGEALKARMATELECOM FIGHTERSTOP GUNROMANTIC THOROUTGATEHEALTHY HAPPYHELENE FEELINGTHE BEST PEACH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 48

PLACE

8 17

10 24

12 20

QUINELLA

8,12 107.5

QUINELLA PLACE

8,10 61

8,12 43

10,12 80.5

FORECAST

8,12 226

TIERCE

8,12,10 1,342

TRIO

8,10,12 280

FIRST 4

8,10,12,14 2,636

QUARTET

8,12,10,14 35,888

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

7/8 2,269.5

7/12 366.5