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Sha Tin · 2024-11-24 · 06:20

Race 4

Class 4 1200m 12 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-11-24 was Class 4 over 1200m. OFFROAD MASTER, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by W K Mo, won by 3/4, with SHANGHAI STYLE second and GOLDEN LONG third. The 4.1 favourite GOLDEN LONG finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.08.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 OFFROAD MASTER B 1.08.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · W K Mo 1 12.0 3/4
2 3 SHANGHAI STYLE B/TT H Bowman · C S Shum 3 5.0 3/4
3 1 GOLDEN LONG H1/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 5 4.1 2
4 7 DRAGON AIR FORCE XB/TT Z Purton · P F Yiu 7 5.1 2-3/4
5 6 ROBOT KNIGHT TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 8 4.8 4-1/2
6 10 SOLAR UP P-/H/PC1/TT M F Poon · C W Chang 4 41.0 4-1/2
7 9 DAILY TROPHY B-/V1/TT B Thompson · C Fownes 9 28.0 5-1/4
8 4 EURO ROCKS SR-/B2/TT M L Yeung · C H Yip 10 37.0 5-1/2
9 12 SMART LEADER PC/XB/TT K De Melo · W Y So 6 41.0 6
10 11 LIFE OF STONE B1 A Badel · T P Yung 11 56.0 6-1/2
11 2 RIDING HIGH TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 2 31.0 7-1/2
12 8 JOLLY COMPANION CP/TT C Y Ho · K L Man 12 7.6 8-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. OFFROAD MASTER2. SHANGHAI STYLE+0.75L3. GOLDEN LONG+2L4. DRAGON AIR FORCE+2.75L5. ROBOT KNIGHT+4.5L6. SOLAR UP+4.5L7. DAILY TROPHY+5.25L8. EURO ROCKS+5.5L9. SMART LEADER+6L10. LIFE OF STONE+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick ROBOT KNIGHT (19.1%) finished 5th — the winner OFFROAD MASTER was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 ROBOT KNIGHT 19.1% 5.22 5
2 3 SHANGHAI STYLE 16.0% 6.25 2
3 1 GOLDEN LONG 14.4% 6.94 3
4 7 DRAGON AIR FORCE 12.8% 7.82 4
5 5 OFFROAD MASTER 8.8% 11.34 1
6 8 JOLLY COMPANION 6.2% 16.03 12
7 12 SMART LEADER 5.3% 18.74 9
8 2 RIDING HIGH 5.1% 19.56 11
9 10 SOLAR UP 4.3% 23.15 6
10 9 DAILY TROPHY 3.6% 27.43 7
11 4 EURO ROCKS 2.7% 37.42 8
12 11 LIFE OF STONE 1.5% 66.20 10
ROBOT KNIGHTSHANGHAI STYLEGOLDEN LONGDRAGON AIR FORCEOFFROAD MASTER — wonJOLLY COMPANIONSMART LEADERRIDING HIGHSOLAR UPDAILY TROPHYEURO ROCKSLIFE OF STONE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 122

PLACE

1 16

3 17.5

5 37

QUINELLA

3,5 306

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 51.5

1,5 85

3,5 112.5

FORECAST

5,3 757

TIERCE

5,3,1 2,493

TRIO

1,3,5 237

FIRST 4

1,3,5,7 272

QUARTET

5,3,1,7 9,071

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,7,10/1,3,5 255,469

3RD DOUBLE

7/3 417

7/5 3,698