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Sha Tin · 2024-12-01 · 05:05

Race 1

Class 5 1650m 10 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-01 was Class 5 over 1650m. PRECISION GOAL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by HD, with YODA'S CHOICE second and YEABOI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.38.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 PRECISION GOAL Closed strongly TT 1.38.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 6 4.0 HD
2 1 YODA'S CHOICE Led early CP/TT A Pouchin · P C Ng 2 5.1 HD
3 7 YEABOI Closed strongly B-/TT A Atzeni · C H Yip 10 15.0 3/4
4 9 JOYFUL CHAMPION Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · C W Chang 5 6.4 3-1/2
5 4 VERBIER B- H Bowman · C Fownes 3 5.7 4
6 2 FAMILY FORTUNE Closed strongly TT J McDonald · C Fownes 4 6.6 4-3/4
7 8 LEATHER MASTER Closed strongly B-/V1/XB1 M L Yeung · K L Man 9 9.1 13-1/2
8 3 STERLING WONGCHOY SR-/XB/CP1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 7 34.0 20-1/2
9 6 CALIFORNIA ICON B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 1 17.0 20-3/4
10 10 MAGIC TRAVELLER CP/TT H Bentley · W Y So 8 38.0 42-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PRECISION GOAL2. YODA'S CHOICE+0.2L3. YEABOI+0.75L4. JOYFUL CHAMPION+3.5L5. VERBIER+4L6. FAMILY FORTUNE+4.75L7. LEATHER MASTER+13.5L8. STERLING WONGCHOY+20.5L9. CALIFORNIA ICON+20.75L10. MAGIC TRAVELLER+42.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick PRECISION GOAL (21.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 PRECISION GOAL 21.5% 4.65 1
2 1 YODA'S CHOICE 16.1% 6.21 2
3 2 FAMILY FORTUNE 13.0% 7.71 6
4 4 VERBIER 12.8% 7.81 5
5 7 YEABOI 9.9% 10.11 3
6 9 JOYFUL CHAMPION 9.8% 10.25 4
7 3 STERLING WONGCHOY 6.4% 15.57 8
8 6 CALIFORNIA ICON 3.9% 25.37 9
9 8 LEATHER MASTER 3.9% 25.80 7
10 10 MAGIC TRAVELLER 2.7% 36.46 10
PRECISION GOAL — wonYODA'S CHOICEFAMILY FORTUNEVERBIERYEABOIJOYFUL CHAMPIONSTERLING WONGCHOYCALIFORNIA ICONLEATHER MASTERMAGIC TRAVELLER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 40

PLACE

1 19.5

5 16

7 40.5

QUINELLA

1,5 120

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 48

1,7 171

5,7 103.5

FORECAST

5,1 239

TIERCE

5,1,7 1,999

TRIO

1,5,7 511

FIRST 4

1,5,7,9 314

QUARTET

5,1,7,9 5,555