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Sha Tin · 2024-12-01 · 17:18

Race 9

Class 4 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 DRAGON JOY Closed strongly SR/TT1 1.22.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · P F Yiu 4 2.8 1
2 14 TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 3 13.0 1
3 5 MASTER OF ALL Led early B/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 2 4.6 1-1/2
4 12 SUNDAY'S SERENADE Closed strongly B/TT J McDonald · J Richards 12 20.0 2-3/4
5 4 FASHION LEGEND Closed strongly XB/TT A Atzeni · D Eustace 1 4.6 3-1/4
6 13 YOUNG HORIZON Closed strongly CP B Thompson · D A Hayes 6 35.0 3-3/4
7 3 BEAUTY MISSILE Closed strongly PC-/B2 B Avdulla · F C Lor 8 16.0 5-1/4
8 7 FLYING AKEED Closed strongly B1 M F Poon · K L Man 9 105.0 5-1/4
9 8 HE WAS YOU TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 5 21.0 5-3/4
10 1 MIGHTY STEED Z Purton · K W Lui 14 17.0 6
11 10 BRILLIANT FIRE Closed strongly H/XB/TT1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 13 183.0 7
12 9 JOLLY JUMPER C L Chau · T P Yung 7 108.0 7-1/4
13 2 RUN RAN RUN B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 11 105.0 9-1/4
14 11 MEEPMEEP B/E/TT A Badel · J Size 10 14.0 9-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-01 was Class 4 over 1400m. DRAGON JOY, ridden by H Bowman and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1, with TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR second and MASTER OF ALL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DRAGON JOY—2. TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR+1L3. MASTER OF ALL+1.5L4. SUNDAY'S SERENADE+2.75L5. FASHION LEGEND+3.25L6. YOUNG HORIZON+3.75L7. BEAUTY MISSILE+5.25L8. FLYING AKEED+5.25L9. HE WAS YOU+5.75L10. MIGHTY STEED+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick MASTER OF ALL (15.8%) finished 3rd — the winner DRAGON JOY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 MASTER OF ALL 15.8% 6.31 3
2 1 MIGHTY STEED 12.8% 7.82 10
3 6 DRAGON JOY 12.4% 8.06 1
4 4 FASHION LEGEND 11.6% 8.60 5
5 14 TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR 8.7% 11.47 2
6 11 MEEPMEEP 7.7% 13.01 14
7 13 YOUNG HORIZON 7.2% 13.97 6
8 3 BEAUTY MISSILE 6.3% 15.98 7
9 12 SUNDAY'S SERENADE 5.2% 19.07 4
10 8 HE WAS YOU 3.4% 29.21 9
11 9 JOLLY JUMPER 3.2% 31.45 12
12 7 FLYING AKEED 2.7% 37.53 8
13 10 BRILLIANT FIRE 1.8% 57.05 11
14 2 RUN RAN RUN 1.2% 80.65 13
MASTER OF ALLMIGHTY STEEDDRAGON JOY — wonFASHION LEGENDTRIUMPHANT WARRIORMEEPMEEPYOUNG HORIZONBEAUTY MISSILESUNDAY'S SERENADEHE WAS YOUJOLLY JUMPERFLYING AKEEDBRILLIANT FIRERUN RAN RUN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 28

PLACE

5 15.5

6 14

14 33.5

QUINELLA

6,14 172

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 24

5,14 98

6,14 64

FORECAST

6,14 281

TIERCE

6,14,5 1,117

TRIO

5,6,14 237

FIRST 4

5,6,12,14 597

QUARTET

6,14,5,12 9,556

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

5/6 94

5/14 96.5