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Sha Tin · 2024-12-01 · 09:20

Race 9

Class 4 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-01 was Class 4 over 1400m. DRAGON JOY, ridden by H Bowman and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1, with TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR second and MASTER OF ALL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 DRAGON JOY Closed strongly SR/TT1 1.22.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · P F Yiu 4 2.8 1
2 14 TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 3 13.0 1
3 5 MASTER OF ALL Led early B/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 2 4.6 1-1/2
4 12 SUNDAY'S SERENADE Closed strongly B/TT J McDonald · J Richards 12 20.0 2-3/4
5 4 FASHION LEGEND Closed strongly XB/TT A Atzeni · D Eustace 1 4.6 3-1/4
6 13 YOUNG HORIZON Closed strongly CP B Thompson · D A Hayes 6 35.0 3-3/4
7 3 BEAUTY MISSILE Closed strongly PC-/B2 B Avdulla · F C Lor 8 16.0 5-1/4
8 7 FLYING AKEED Closed strongly B1 M F Poon · K L Man 9 105.0 5-1/4
9 8 HE WAS YOU TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 5 21.0 5-3/4
10 1 MIGHTY STEED Z Purton · K W Lui 14 17.0 6
11 10 BRILLIANT FIRE Closed strongly H/XB/TT1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 13 183.0 7
12 9 JOLLY JUMPER C L Chau · T P Yung 7 108.0 7-1/4
13 2 RUN RAN RUN B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 11 105.0 9-1/4
14 11 MEEPMEEP B/E/TT A Badel · J Size 10 14.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DRAGON JOY2. TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR+1L3. MASTER OF ALL+1.5L4. SUNDAY'S SERENADE+2.75L5. FASHION LEGEND+3.25L6. YOUNG HORIZON+3.75L7. BEAUTY MISSILE+5.25L8. FLYING AKEED+5.25L9. HE WAS YOU+5.75L10. MIGHTY STEED+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick MASTER OF ALL (15.8%) finished 3rd — the winner DRAGON JOY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 MASTER OF ALL 15.8% 6.31 3
2 1 MIGHTY STEED 12.8% 7.82 10
3 6 DRAGON JOY 12.4% 8.06 1
4 4 FASHION LEGEND 11.6% 8.60 5
5 14 TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR 8.7% 11.47 2
6 11 MEEPMEEP 7.7% 13.01 14
7 13 YOUNG HORIZON 7.2% 13.97 6
8 3 BEAUTY MISSILE 6.3% 15.98 7
9 12 SUNDAY'S SERENADE 5.2% 19.07 4
10 8 HE WAS YOU 3.4% 29.21 9
11 9 JOLLY JUMPER 3.2% 31.45 12
12 7 FLYING AKEED 2.7% 37.53 8
13 10 BRILLIANT FIRE 1.8% 57.05 11
14 2 RUN RAN RUN 1.2% 80.65 13
MASTER OF ALLMIGHTY STEEDDRAGON JOY — wonFASHION LEGENDTRIUMPHANT WARRIORMEEPMEEPYOUNG HORIZONBEAUTY MISSILESUNDAY'S SERENADEHE WAS YOUJOLLY JUMPERFLYING AKEEDBRILLIANT FIRERUN RAN RUN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 28

PLACE

5 15.5

6 14

14 33.5

QUINELLA

6,14 172

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 24

5,14 98

6,14 64

FORECAST

6,14 281

TIERCE

6,14,5 1,117

TRIO

5,6,14 237

FIRST 4

5,6,12,14 597

QUARTET

6,14,5,12 9,556

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

5/6 94

5/14 96.5