Sha Tin · 2024-12-01 · 17:53
Race 10
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | MY WISH Closed strongly 1.21.20 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 13 | 2.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 4 | STEPS AHEAD Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 6.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 11 | MAGNIFICENT NINE Closed strongly B/E A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 1 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | GRACIOUS EXPRESS CP H Bowman · P F Yiu | H Bowman | P F Yiu | 9 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | HUGE WAVE Closed strongly TT A Badel · K H Ting | A Badel | K H Ting | 2 | 13.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | GENEVA Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 11 | 3.1 | 6 |
| 7 | 13 | SUPER GOLDI TT- M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 8 | 157.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 10 | AEROINVINCIBLE Led early SR-/TT M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 12 | 24.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | SPANISH FLAME Closed strongly A Atzeni · W Y So | A Atzeni | W Y So | 7 | 98.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | DEFINITIVE Closed strongly CP/TT B Avdulla · D Eustace | B Avdulla | D Eustace | 5 | 124.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | STORM RIDER CP- J McDonald · D A Hayes | J McDonald | D A Hayes | 10 | 16.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 9 | HE WAS ME B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 6 | 168.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 13 | 12 | POLARIS B/TT P N Wong · K L Man | P N Wong | K L Man | 3 | 117.0 | 13 |
| 14 | 14 | TOP PEAK TT H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 14 | 110.0 | 20-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-01 was Class 3 over 1400m. MY WISH, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won by 1-1/4, with STEPS AHEAD second and MAGNIFICENT NINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | MY WISH | 19.8% | 5.04 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | GENEVA | 19.6% | 5.09 | 6 |
| 3 | 4 | STEPS AHEAD | 15.3% | 6.52 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | GRACIOUS EXPRESS | 11.7% | 8.58 | 4 |
| 5 | 5 | STORM RIDER | 7.3% | 13.66 | 11 |
| 6 | 11 | MAGNIFICENT NINE | 7.2% | 13.85 | 3 |
| 7 | 2 | HUGE WAVE | 5.5% | 18.11 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | AEROINVINCIBLE | 4.0% | 25.25 | 8 |
| 9 | 14 | TOP PEAK | 2.9% | 33.95 | 14 |
| 10 | 12 | POLARIS | 2.5% | 40.45 | 13 |
| 11 | 6 | SPANISH FLAME | 1.8% | 56.46 | 9 |
| 12 | 13 | SUPER GOLDI | 1.0% | 98.39 | 7 |
| 13 | 7 | DEFINITIVE | 0.7% | 143.08 | 10 |
| 14 | 9 | HE WAS ME | 0.6% | 175.47 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 29.5
PLACE
3 14
4 19
11 27
QUINELLA
3,4 82.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 29.5
3,11 65
4,11 109
FORECAST
3,4 139
TIERCE
3,4,11 1,171
TRIO
3,4,11 286
FIRST 4
1,3,4,11 470
QUARTET
3,4,11,1 5,792
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
5/6/3 268
5/6/4 96
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
5,6,14/3,4,11 4,661
9TH DOUBLE
6/3 85
6/4 27
SIX UP
5,6/2,8/11,12/5,6/6,14/3,4 823
6/8/12/5/6/3 20,107
4 [C Y Ho] —
4 [M Newnham] —