Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2024-12-01 · 07:40

Race 6

Class 4 1800m 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-01 was Class 4 over 1800m. RELIABLE PROFIT, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with EXCEL WONGCHOY second and HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.48.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 RELIABLE PROFIT Closed strongly P/TT 1.48.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C S Shum 13 3.3 N
2 2 EXCEL WONGCHOY Closed strongly H/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 9 6.3 N
3 11 HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER Led early B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 12 116.0 1-3/4
4 10 NEVER PETER OUT CP/TT M L Yeung · F C Lor 1 6.5 3-1/4
5 1 NORTHERN BEAST Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall 7 18.0 4
6 14 SOARING BRONCO Closed strongly TT M F Poon · P C Ng 5 5.3 4-3/4
7 6 FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B B Thompson · C W Chang 2 10.0 5-1/4
8 9 JUBILATION Closed strongly V J McDonald · W Y So 14 10.0 6
9 13 ON THE LASH B/XB/TT L Hewitson · P C Ng 11 25.0 6-1/2
10 12 MILES AWAY CP A Atzeni · P C Ng 8 64.0 6-3/4
11 3 BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB/TT M Chadwick · K H Ting 10 24.0 11-1/2
12 4 DEAL COMPLETED B/TT H Bentley · K H Ting 6 28.0 17-1/4
13 5 DEVILDOM B A Pouchin · T P Yung 4 46.0 23-1/2
14 7 ENSHINE B/H C L Chau · K L Man 3 159.0 26-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RELIABLE PROFIT—2. EXCEL WONGCHOY+0.05L3. HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER+1.75L4. NEVER PETER OUT+3.25L5. NORTHERN BEAST+4L6. SOARING BRONCO+4.75L7. FOREVER FOLKS+5.25L8. JUBILATION+6L9. ON THE LASH+6.5L10. MILES AWAY+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick RELIABLE PROFIT (17.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 RELIABLE PROFIT 17.0% 5.87 1
2 2 EXCEL WONGCHOY 14.5% 6.90 2
3 14 SOARING BRONCO 12.3% 8.16 6
4 10 NEVER PETER OUT 10.9% 9.14 4
5 6 FOREVER FOLKS 9.2% 10.88 7
6 9 JUBILATION 8.5% 11.75 8
7 1 NORTHERN BEAST 5.9% 17.07 5
8 13 ON THE LASH 5.4% 18.36 9
9 3 BILLIONAIRE SECRET 4.6% 21.84 11
10 4 DEAL COMPLETED 3.7% 27.11 12
11 5 DEVILDOM 3.4% 29.57 13
12 11 HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER 1.8% 54.39 3
13 12 MILES AWAY 1.5% 67.73 10
14 7 ENSHINE 1.3% 76.27 14
RELIABLE PROFIT — wonEXCEL WONGCHOYSOARING BRONCONEVER PETER OUTFOREVER FOLKSJUBILATIONNORTHERN BEASTON THE LASHBILLIONAIRE SECRETDEAL COMPLETEDDEVILDOMHAPPYDEARHAPPYDEERMILES AWAYENSHINE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 33

PLACE

2 23.5

8 15.5

11 235.5

QUINELLA

2,8 112.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 46

2,11 826

8,11 632.5

FORECAST

8,2 199

TIERCE

8,2,11 13,366

TRIO

2,8,11 2,808

FIRST 4

2,8,10,11 3,804

QUARTET

8,2,11,10 48,262

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

5,6,13/2,8,11 63,707

5TH DOUBLE

6/2 75

6/8 427.5

TRIPLE TRIO

4,5,12/5,6,13/2,8,11 4,139,321

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,5,12/5,6,13/Any Combination 3,126

← Race 5 Race 7 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1800m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99