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Sha Tin · 2024-12-01 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 4 1800m 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.48.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 RELIABLE PROFIT Closed strongly P/TT 1.48.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C S Shum 13 3.3 N
2 2 EXCEL WONGCHOY Closed strongly H/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 9 6.3 N
3 11 HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER Led early B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 12 116.0 1-3/4
4 10 NEVER PETER OUT CP/TT M L Yeung · F C Lor 1 6.5 3-1/4
5 1 NORTHERN BEAST Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall 7 18.0 4
6 14 SOARING BRONCO Closed strongly TT M F Poon · P C Ng 5 5.3 4-3/4
7 6 FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B B Thompson · C W Chang 2 10.0 5-1/4
8 9 JUBILATION Closed strongly V J McDonald · W Y So 14 10.0 6
9 13 ON THE LASH B/XB/TT L Hewitson · P C Ng 11 25.0 6-1/2
10 12 MILES AWAY CP A Atzeni · P C Ng 8 64.0 6-3/4
11 3 BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB/TT M Chadwick · K H Ting 10 24.0 11-1/2
12 4 DEAL COMPLETED B/TT H Bentley · K H Ting 6 28.0 17-1/4
13 5 DEVILDOM B A Pouchin · T P Yung 4 46.0 23-1/2
14 7 ENSHINE B/H C L Chau · K L Man 3 159.0 26-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-01 was Class 4 over 1800m. RELIABLE PROFIT, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with EXCEL WONGCHOY second and HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.3 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RELIABLE PROFIT—2. EXCEL WONGCHOY+0.05L3. HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER+1.75L4. NEVER PETER OUT+3.25L5. NORTHERN BEAST+4L6. SOARING BRONCO+4.75L7. FOREVER FOLKS+5.25L8. JUBILATION+6L9. ON THE LASH+6.5L10. MILES AWAY+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick RELIABLE PROFIT (17.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 RELIABLE PROFIT 17.0% 5.87 1
2 2 EXCEL WONGCHOY 14.5% 6.90 2
3 14 SOARING BRONCO 12.3% 8.16 6
4 10 NEVER PETER OUT 10.9% 9.14 4
5 6 FOREVER FOLKS 9.2% 10.88 7
6 9 JUBILATION 8.5% 11.75 8
7 1 NORTHERN BEAST 5.9% 17.07 5
8 13 ON THE LASH 5.4% 18.36 9
9 3 BILLIONAIRE SECRET 4.6% 21.84 11
10 4 DEAL COMPLETED 3.7% 27.11 12
11 5 DEVILDOM 3.4% 29.57 13
12 11 HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER 1.8% 54.39 3
13 12 MILES AWAY 1.5% 67.73 10
14 7 ENSHINE 1.3% 76.27 14
RELIABLE PROFIT — wonEXCEL WONGCHOYSOARING BRONCONEVER PETER OUTFOREVER FOLKSJUBILATIONNORTHERN BEASTON THE LASHBILLIONAIRE SECRETDEAL COMPLETEDDEVILDOMHAPPYDEARHAPPYDEERMILES AWAYENSHINE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 33

PLACE

2 23.5

8 15.5

11 235.5

QUINELLA

2,8 112.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 46

2,11 826

8,11 632.5

FORECAST

8,2 199

TIERCE

8,2,11 13,366

TRIO

2,8,11 2,808

FIRST 4

2,8,10,11 3,804

QUARTET

8,2,11,10 48,262

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

5,6,13/2,8,11 63,707

5TH DOUBLE

6/2 75

6/8 427.5

TRIPLE TRIO

4,5,12/5,6,13/2,8,11 4,139,321

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,5,12/5,6,13/Any Combination 3,126

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