Sha Tin · 2024-12-01 · 06:05
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-01 was Class 5 over 1200m. VULCANUS, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 3-1/2, with EXCELLENT DADDY second and SONIC BOOM third. The 3.2 favourite PATCH OF WATCH finished 12th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | VULCANUS 1.09.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 2 | 6.2 | 3-1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | EXCELLENT DADDY CP/TT L Ferraris · T P Yung | L Ferraris | T P Yung | 4 | 19.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | SONIC BOOM TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 10 | 4.9 | 4 |
| 4 | 2 | FUNG B/TT E C W Wong · C W Chang | E C W Wong | C W Chang | 6 | 42.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | HIGH RISE POWER TT B Avdulla · C H Yip | B Avdulla | C H Yip | 3 | 14.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 1 | 19.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | GORGEOUS VITALITY TT L Hewitson · F C Lor | L Hewitson | F C Lor | 12 | 8.9 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | SPEEDSTAR B H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 8 | 11.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 1 | FANCY STAR PC-/P2/TT J McDonald · C Fownes | J McDonald | C Fownes | 5 | 24.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | RATTAN WORLD PC/TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 11 | 17.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | DOUBLE SHOW B-/PC1/TT A Pouchin · D J Whyte | A Pouchin | D J Whyte | 9 | 26.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | PATCH OF WATCH B/TT P N Wong · K L Man | P N Wong | K L Man | 7 | 3.2 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | FANCY STAR | 17.3% | 5.77 | 9 |
| 2 | 5 | VULCANUS | 15.9% | 6.31 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | SONIC BOOM | 15.3% | 6.52 | 3 |
| 4 | 12 | PATCH OF WATCH | 13.2% | 7.58 | 12 |
| 5 | 7 | SPEEDSTAR | 9.1% | 11.04 | 8 |
| 6 | 10 | DOUBLE SHOW | 7.4% | 13.47 | 11 |
| 7 | 8 | HIGH RISE POWER | 5.8% | 17.14 | 5 |
| 8 | 6 | GORGEOUS VITALITY | 4.0% | 24.88 | 7 |
| 9 | 9 | RATTAN WORLD | 3.6% | 27.68 | 10 |
| 10 | 11 | EXCELLENT DADDY | 3.5% | 28.49 | 2 |
| 11 | 2 | FUNG | 2.9% | 34.58 | 4 |
| 12 | 4 | STRIVE FOR GLORY | 1.9% | 51.75 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 62.5
PLACE
3 16.5
5 20.5
11 42
QUINELLA
5,11 544
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 44
3,11 131
5,11 161.5
FORECAST
5,11 995
TIERCE
5,11,3 3,112
TRIO
3,5,11 622
FIRST 4
2,3,5,11 4,056
QUARTET
5,11,3,2 82,819
All pools (1 more)
2ND DOUBLE
8/5 236.5
8/11 206