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Sha Tin · 2024-12-01 · 07:05

Race 5

Class 3 1000m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-01 was Class 3 over 1000m. HEALTHY HEALTHY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by P C Ng, won by NOSE, with STELLAR EXPRESS second and SUPER FORTUNE third. The 2.5 favourite KA YING VICTORY finished 8th.

Result

Official · 0.56.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 HEALTHY HEALTHY B/TT 0.56.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · P C Ng 7 4.5 NOSE
2 5 STELLAR EXPRESS B1 B Avdulla · J Size 4 8.3 NOSE
3 13 SUPER FORTUNE TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 14 4.7 1
4 9 O'LINER TT A Hamelin · J Richards 6 42.0 1-1/2
5 12 POSITIVE SMILE M L Yeung · D A Hayes 12 91.0 1-3/4
6 3 CARROLL STREET B-/V1/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 5 33.0 2-1/4
7 7 MATTERS MOST TT1 C L Chau · C S Shum 11 39.0 3
8 4 KA YING VICTORY Z Purton · D J Hall 9 2.5 3
9 10 PARTERRE B A Pouchin · W Y So 10 37.0 3-1/2
10 1 BABY CRYSTAL B/TT E C W Wong · K W Lui 8 14.0 3-1/2
11 14 RUN RUN SMART TT1 A Atzeni · F C Lor 3 72.0 4-1/2
12 11 MAGIC HALLOW XB1/TT1 P N Wong · K L Man 13 52.0 6-1/4
13 8 POWER KOEPP B/E L Ferraris · K L Man 2 44.0 6-1/4
14 2 THE REVOLUTION Y L Chung · P C Ng 1 74.0 9-1/4
0 ALPHA ONE M Chadwick · W K Mo

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HEALTHY HEALTHY2. STELLAR EXPRESS+0.05L3. SUPER FORTUNE+1L4. O'LINER+1.5L5. POSITIVE SMILE+1.75L6. CARROLL STREET+2.25L7. MATTERS MOST+3L8. KA YING VICTORY+3L9. PARTERRE+3.5L10. BABY CRYSTAL+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick KA YING VICTORY (28.3%) finished 8th — the winner HEALTHY HEALTHY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 KA YING VICTORY 28.3% 3.53 8
2 5 STELLAR EXPRESS 14.4% 6.93 2
3 6 HEALTHY HEALTHY 12.6% 7.96 1
4 13 SUPER FORTUNE 9.1% 10.94 3
5 3 CARROLL STREET 5.9% 17.06 6
6 9 O'LINER 4.5% 22.26 4
7 11 MAGIC HALLOW 4.4% 22.93 12
8 14 RUN RUN SMART 3.6% 27.98 11
9 2 THE REVOLUTION 3.4% 29.30 14
10 7 MATTERS MOST 3.2% 31.08 7
11 8 POWER KOEPP 3.2% 31.38 13
12 10 PARTERRE 3.1% 32.35 9
13 1 BABY CRYSTAL 2.9% 35.05 10
14 12 POSITIVE SMILE 1.5% 65.94 5
KA YING VICTORYSTELLAR EXPRESSHEALTHY HEALTHY — wonSUPER FORTUNECARROLL STREETO'LINERMAGIC HALLOWRUN RUN SMARTTHE REVOLUTIONMATTERS MOSTPOWER KOEPPPARTERREBABY CRYSTALPOSITIVE SMILE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 45

PLACE

5 23

6 16

13 16.5

QUINELLA

5,6 222

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 68

5,13 68

6,13 34.5

FORECAST

6,5 349

TIERCE

6,5,13 1,600

TRIO

5,6,13 233

FIRST 4

5,6,9,13 2,176

QUARTET

6,5,13,9 32,605

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

5/12/5 557

5/12/6 3,748

4TH DOUBLE

12/5 150

12/6 934