Happy Valley · 2024-12-04 · 18:30
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | THE AZURE Closed strongly 1.40.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 10 | 3.8 | N |
| 2 | 6 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly XB L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 11 | 9.0 | N |
| 3 | 2 | KASA PAPA Closed strongly TT H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 4 | 4.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 7 | MANYTHANKS FOREVER TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 5 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | COOL BLUE Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 8 | 19.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 8 | WINNING SEVEN Closed strongly B/TT M Barzalona · D J Whyte | M Barzalona | D J Whyte | 6 | 8.2 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | SUPERB MOVE B/TT H Doyle · C H Yip | H Doyle | C H Yip | 3 | 19.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | FLYING ROMANTIC B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 7 | 54.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | SUPER GLORY Led early PC/TT L Hewitson · P C Ng | L Hewitson | P C Ng | 1 | 16.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 10 | 12 | SUNNY SHINES B-/TT M F Poon · D Eustace | M F Poon | D Eustace | 2 | 5.8 | 14 |
| 11 | 10 | RED MAVERICK K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 9 | 12.0 | 18-1/4 |
| — | 1 | IVICTORIAM J McDonald · J Richards | J McDonald | J Richards | — | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-12-04 was Class 5 over 1650m. THE AZURE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with INVINCIBLE MISSILE second and KASA PAPA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.8 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | THE AZURE | 18.1% | 5.52 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | KASA PAPA | 17.0% | 5.89 | 3 |
| 3 | 12 | SUNNY SHINES | 12.5% | 7.99 | 10 |
| 4 | 8 | WINNING SEVEN | 9.8% | 10.16 | 6 |
| 5 | 7 | MANYTHANKS FOREVER | 7.6% | 13.16 | 4 |
| 6 | 10 | RED MAVERICK | 7.6% | 13.16 | 11 |
| 7 | 11 | SUPERB MOVE | 7.6% | 13.20 | 7 |
| 8 | 6 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 6.9% | 14.59 | 2 |
| 9 | 4 | SUPER GLORY | 5.4% | 18.43 | 9 |
| 10 | 9 | COOL BLUE | 4.4% | 22.69 | 5 |
| 11 | 5 | FLYING ROMANTIC | 3.1% | 32.75 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 38.5
PLACE
2 17.5
3 17.5
6 24.5
QUINELLA
3,6 177.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 41.5
2,6 77.5
3,6 67.5
FORECAST
3,6 276
TIERCE
3,6,2 727
TRIO
2,3,6 131
FIRST 4
2,3,6,7 491
QUARTET
3,6,2,7 7,590