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Happy Valley · 2024-12-04 · 15:00

Race 9

Class 2 1800m Course A 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2024-12-04 was Class 2 over 1800m. CHILL CHIBI, ridden by J McDonald and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with MOMENTS IN TIME second and RED HARE KING third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite STUNNING PEACH finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.49.05
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 CHILL CHIBI Closed strongly B/TT 1.49.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · C S Shum 3 3.5 N
2 1 MOMENTS IN TIME Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C S Shum 10 31.0 N
3 10 RED HARE KING Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 4 10.0 1/2
4 12 STAR CONTACT Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 9 59.0 1/2
5 9 FLAMINGO TRILLION Led early A Badel · F C Lor 11 9.8 1-1/2
6 4 MR ASCENDENCY Closed strongly TT L Ferraris · P F Yiu 5 46.0 2-1/4
7 6 KARMA TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 6 7.2 2-3/4
8 2 SENOR TOBA TT A Hamelin · C Fownes 8 39.0 3
9 8 STUNNING PEACH Closed strongly TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 7 2.4 3-1/2
10 5 ATULLIBIGEAL B/H/XB B Avdulla · D J Hall 12 102.0 3-3/4
11 7 YELLOWFIN XB C L Chau · K W Lui 2 37.0 7-1/4
12 11 TURIN MASCOT PC/TT K Teetan · P C Ng 1 24.0 8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHILL CHIBI2. MOMENTS IN TIME+0.05L3. RED HARE KING+0.5L4. STAR CONTACT+0.5L5. FLAMINGO TRILLION+1.5L6. MR ASCENDENCY+2.25L7. KARMA+2.75L8. SENOR TOBA+3L9. STUNNING PEACH+3.5L10. ATULLIBIGEAL+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick STUNNING PEACH (27.6%) finished 9th — the winner CHILL CHIBI was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 STUNNING PEACH 27.6% 3.62 9
2 3 CHILL CHIBI 18.7% 5.34 1
3 6 KARMA 9.9% 10.08 7
4 10 RED HARE KING 7.1% 14.12 3
5 7 YELLOWFIN 7.0% 14.32 11
6 9 FLAMINGO TRILLION 6.1% 16.31 5
7 11 TURIN MASCOT 5.9% 16.82 12
8 1 MOMENTS IN TIME 5.8% 17.26 2
9 4 MR ASCENDENCY 4.4% 22.54 6
10 2 SENOR TOBA 3.0% 33.81 8
11 5 ATULLIBIGEAL 2.5% 39.88 10
12 12 STAR CONTACT 1.9% 52.63 4
STUNNING PEACHCHILL CHIBI — wonKARMARED HARE KINGYELLOWFINFLAMINGO TRILLIONTURIN MASCOTMOMENTS IN TIMEMR ASCENDENCYSENOR TOBAATULLIBIGEALSTAR CONTACT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 35.5

PLACE

1 63.5

3 15

10 25.5

QUINELLA

1,3 444

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 143

1,10 324.5

3,10 50.5

FORECAST

3,1 663

TIERCE

3,1,10 5,008

TRIO

1,3,10 1,041

FIRST 4

1,3,10,12 6,764

QUARTET

3,1,10,12 83,113

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

12/8/1 4,602

12/8/3 3,441

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,8/1,3,10 367,910

8TH DOUBLE

8/1 936.5

8/3 597

SIX UP

1,3/2,6/4,10/5,12/3,8/1,3 58,156

4 [D A Hayes]