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Happy Valley · 2024-12-04 · 11:05

Race 2

Class 5 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-12-04 was Class 5 over 1200m. GOOD VIEW GLORY, ridden by M Barzalona and trained by C H Yip, won by HD, with WINNING HEART second and EVER SMART third. The 3.9 favourite EVER SMART finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.10.65
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 GOOD VIEW GLORY B 1.10.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Barzalona · C H Yip 9 14.0 HD
2 3 WINNING HEART B/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 7 4.6 HD
3 1 EVER SMART H-/TT J McDonald · F C Lor 5 3.9 1-3/4
4 12 WIND SPEEDER M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 3 9.1 3
5 8 SPEEDY CHARIOT B/TT H Doyle · D J Whyte 8 20.0 3-1/2
6 6 TATTENHAM H/TT2 A Pouchin · P C Ng 4 8.0 3-3/4
7 2 FAIRY HORSE B-/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 6 6.5 4-1/4
8 7 MULTIDARLING TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 12 153.0 4-1/4
8 11 BEAU GOSSE B/XB M F Poon · K W Lui 11 27.0 4-1/4
10 9 LAPRAS CP/TT L Ferraris · W K Mo 2 39.0 6-1/4
11 5 SUPER EAGLE TT K Teetan · W Y So 1 7.2 9-1/4
12 10 ALLOY KING B A Hamelin · K H Ting 10 32.0 13-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOOD VIEW GLORY2. WINNING HEART+0.2L3. EVER SMART+1.75L4. WIND SPEEDER+3L5. SPEEDY CHARIOT+3.5L6. TATTENHAM+3.75L7. FAIRY HORSE+4.25L8. MULTIDARLING+4.25L8. BEAU GOSSE+4.25L10. LAPRAS+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick FAIRY HORSE (20.2%) finished 7th — the winner GOOD VIEW GLORY was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 FAIRY HORSE 20.2% 4.96 7
2 12 WIND SPEEDER 14.7% 6.80 4
3 1 EVER SMART 14.3% 6.97 3
4 3 WINNING HEART 11.5% 8.69 2
5 5 SUPER EAGLE 10.7% 9.32 11
6 6 TATTENHAM 8.1% 12.31 6
7 8 SPEEDY CHARIOT 5.3% 18.89 5
8 9 LAPRAS 4.8% 21.02 10
9 4 GOOD VIEW GLORY 3.1% 32.60 1
10 7 MULTIDARLING 2.7% 37.11 8
11 11 BEAU GOSSE 2.4% 41.04 8
12 10 ALLOY KING 2.2% 45.43 12
FAIRY HORSEWIND SPEEDEREVER SMARTWINNING HEARTSUPER EAGLETATTENHAMSPEEDY CHARIOTLAPRASGOOD VIEW GLORY — wonMULTIDARLINGBEAU GOSSEALLOY KING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 148

PLACE

1 17

3 20.5

4 39.5

QUINELLA

3,4 366

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 46.5

1,4 122

3,4 127

FORECAST

4,3 973

TIERCE

4,3,1 4,736

TRIO

1,3,4 564

FIRST 4

1,3,4,12 1,025

QUARTET

4,3,1,12 21,634

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1,3/3 25

1,3/4 1,201