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Happy Valley · 2024-12-04 · 13:45

Race 7

Class 3 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-12-04 was Class 3 over 1650m. SOLEIL FIGHTER, ridden by H Doyle and trained by D A Hayes, won by N, with SILO second and AESTHETICISM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite SUPER UNICORN finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.40.51
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 SOLEIL FIGHTER Closed strongly XB 1.40.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Doyle · D A Hayes 3 6.3 N
2 5 SILO Closed strongly CP K Teetan · M Newnham 7 7.2 N
3 11 AESTHETICISM Closed strongly B- Z Purton · P C Ng 4 20.0 N
4 3 M UNICORN Closed strongly H/P/TT W Buick · C Fownes 9 21.0 1-1/4
5 2 SAMARKAND CP/TT R King · D A Hayes 12 47.0 1-1/4
6 10 SUPER UNICORN TT M Barzalona · F C Lor 1 2.8 2
7 7 COMET SPLENDIDO Closed strongly TT J McDonald · C S Shum 8 25.0 4
8 6 DARING PURSUIT TT R Moore · C Fownes 6 4.7 4-1/4
9 4 ROMANTIC LAOS CP/TT C Keane · W K Mo 10 30.0 4-1/4
10 9 NEVER TOO SOON Y Kawada · D J Hall 5 42.0 5-1/4
11 8 JUMBO LEGEND Closed strongly H/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 2 10.0 7-1/4
12 1 LOVERO Led early TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 11 25.0 11-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SOLEIL FIGHTER2. SILO+0.05L3. AESTHETICISM+0.05L4. M UNICORN+1.25L5. SAMARKAND+1.25L6. SUPER UNICORN+2L7. COMET SPLENDIDO+4L8. DARING PURSUIT+4.25L9. ROMANTIC LAOS+4.25L10. NEVER TOO SOON+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SUPER UNICORN (21.1%) finished 6th — the winner SOLEIL FIGHTER was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 SUPER UNICORN 21.1% 4.74 6
2 6 DARING PURSUIT 13.6% 7.35 8
3 12 SOLEIL FIGHTER 12.9% 7.76 1
4 7 COMET SPLENDIDO 10.0% 9.99 7
5 8 JUMBO LEGEND 9.8% 10.17 11
6 11 AESTHETICISM 7.6% 13.19 3
7 5 SILO 7.2% 13.83 2
8 3 M UNICORN 5.0% 20.01 4
9 1 LOVERO 3.8% 26.46 12
10 2 SAMARKAND 3.3% 30.26 5
11 4 ROMANTIC LAOS 3.3% 30.67 9
12 9 NEVER TOO SOON 2.4% 41.75 10
SUPER UNICORNDARING PURSUITSOLEIL FIGHTER — wonCOMET SPLENDIDOJUMBO LEGENDAESTHETICISMSILOM UNICORNLOVEROSAMARKANDROMANTIC LAOSNEVER TOO SOON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 63

PLACE

5 24

11 44.5

12 24.5

QUINELLA

5,12 261.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,11 204

5,12 86.5

11,12 188.5

FORECAST

12,5 510

TIERCE

12,5,11 5,901

TRIO

5,11,12 1,374

FIRST 4

3,5,11,12 6,317

QUARTET

12,5,11,3 94,391

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

4,10,12/5,11,12 36,209

6TH DOUBLE

10/5 58

10/12 384.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,2,6/4,10,12/Any Combination 11,590