Happy Valley · 2024-12-04 · 14:15
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-12-04 was Class 3 over 1200m. AURORA LADY, ridden by M Barzalona and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-3/4, with KYRUS DRAGON second and SUPER JOY N FUN third. The 4.0 favourite CHATEAUNEUF finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | AURORA LADY CP/TT 1.09.50 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Barzalona · P C Ng | M Barzalona | P C Ng | 12 | 6.8 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | KYRUS DRAGON H/XB C Keane · D J Hall | C Keane | D J Hall | 2 | 13.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | SUPER JOY N FUN XB/TT C Y Ho · T P Yung | C Y Ho | T P Yung | 6 | 15.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | STORMING DRAGON V/TT R King · J Richards | R King | J Richards | 8 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | DENFIELD TT W Buick · C S Shum | W Buick | C S Shum | 5 | 31.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | SPICY GOLD H/TT Y Kawada · M Newnham | Y Kawada | M Newnham | 7 | 7.1 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | CHATEAUNEUF B/TT J McDonald · D A Hayes | J McDonald | D A Hayes | 4 | 4.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | GUSTOSISIMO TT H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 3 | 6.2 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 1 | SUGAR SUGAR B/TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 9 | 46.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 6 | LUCKY EIGHT R Moore · P F Yiu | R Moore | P F Yiu | 11 | 15.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 11 | GOKO WIN B H Doyle · D J Whyte | H Doyle | D J Whyte | 10 | 21.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | GIANT LEAP B Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 1 | 8.7 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | GUSTOSISIMO | 21.3% | 4.70 | 8 |
| 2 | 12 | STORMING DRAGON | 14.3% | 6.99 | 4 |
| 3 | 5 | CHATEAUNEUF | 13.9% | 7.22 | 7 |
| 4 | 9 | SPICY GOLD | 10.7% | 9.31 | 5 |
| 5 | 4 | SUPER JOY N FUN | 8.9% | 11.24 | 3 |
| 6 | 3 | KYRUS DRAGON | 6.9% | 14.57 | 2 |
| 7 | 10 | GIANT LEAP | 6.0% | 16.60 | 12 |
| 8 | 11 | GOKO WIN | 4.2% | 24.06 | 11 |
| 9 | 7 | DENFIELD | 4.1% | 24.50 | 5 |
| 10 | 6 | LUCKY EIGHT | 3.5% | 28.53 | 10 |
| 11 | 8 | AURORA LADY | 3.3% | 30.13 | 1 |
| 12 | 1 | SUGAR SUGAR | 3.0% | 33.57 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 68.5
PLACE
3 31.5
4 38.5
8 27
QUINELLA
3,8 697
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 271
3,8 226
4,8 164
FORECAST
8,3 1,164
TIERCE
8,3,4 23,951
TRIO
3,4,8 3,341
FIRST 4
3,4,8,12 7,416
QUARTET
8,3,4,12 174,223
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
12/3 140
12/8 1,642
12 [M Barzalona] —