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Happy Valley · 2024-12-11 · 10:45

Race 1

Class 5 2200m Course B 8 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-12-11 was Class 5 over 2200m. FURY AND GOLD, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by C H Yip, won by SH, with GOLDEN FAIRY second and NICE BIRDIE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.17.26
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 FURY AND GOLD Closed strongly TT 2.17.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · C H Yip 6 2.9 SH
2 7 GOLDEN FAIRY Led early A Badel · W Y So 1 4.7 SH
3 5 NICE BIRDIE Closed strongly TT C L Chau · C S Shum 7 21.0 1-3/4
4 4 SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly B/TT2 K Teetan · C H Yip 8 8.5 1-3/4
5 2 PALACE PAL V Z Purton · D J Hall 2 4.1 2-1/2
6 1 ON THE LASH B/XB/TT J McDonald · P C Ng 3 10.0 3
7 3 MR ALADDIN B/TT A Pouchin · P C Ng 5 7.3 5-1/2
8 8 TIGER AND GOLD B-/CP1 B Thompson · C H Yip 4 57.0 14

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FURY AND GOLD2. GOLDEN FAIRY+0.1L3. NICE BIRDIE+1.75L4. SUPER HONG KONG+1.75L5. PALACE PAL+2.5L6. ON THE LASH+3L7. MR ALADDIN+5.5L8. TIGER AND GOLD+14L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick PALACE PAL (28.5%) finished 5th — the winner FURY AND GOLD was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 PALACE PAL 28.5% 3.51 5
2 1 ON THE LASH 19.7% 5.08 6
3 6 FURY AND GOLD 17.6% 5.67 1
4 7 GOLDEN FAIRY 17.5% 5.70 2
5 5 NICE BIRDIE 6.5% 15.28 3
6 3 MR ALADDIN 6.0% 16.64 7
7 4 SUPER HONG KONG 3.3% 30.60 4
8 8 TIGER AND GOLD 0.8% 126.77 8
PALACE PALON THE LASHFURY AND GOLD — wonGOLDEN FAIRYNICE BIRDIEMR ALADDINSUPER HONG KONGTIGER AND GOLD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 29

PLACE

5 42.5

6 13.5

7 16

QUINELLA

6,7 79

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 95.5

5,7 129

6,7 31

FORECAST

6,7 132

TIERCE

6,7,5 1,296

TRIO

5,6,7 300

FIRST 4

4,5,6,7 332

QUARTET

6,7,5,4 4,851