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Happy Valley · 2024-12-11 · 11:20

Race 2

Class 5 1000m Course B 10 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-12-11 was Class 5 over 1000m. COUNTRY DANCER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by J Size, won by HD, with SAME TO YOU second and WIND SPEEDER third. The 3.8 favourite PLENTIFUL finished 4th.

Result

Official · 0.57.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 COUNTRY DANCER E 0.57.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · J Size 11 11.0 HD
2 6 SAME TO YOU H/P/TT B Avdulla · M Newnham 4 25.0 HD
3 12 WIND SPEEDER B2 A Pouchin · Y S Tsui 2 6.1 HD
4 10 PLENTIFUL XB/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 1 3.8 1/2
5 1 DAN ATTACK B/TT J McDonald · J Richards 8 9.0 3/4
6 4 RUBY SAILING B2/TT Z Purton · K L Man 9 5.2 1-1/2
7 5 STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 10 41.0 2
8 8 TIMESTORM V L Ferraris · D J Hall 7 7.4 2-1/4
9 2 MODEST GENTLEMAN B H Bentley · C H Yip 3 5.2 3-1/4
10 3 LIFE OF STONE B C L Chau · T P Yung 12 78.0 7-3/4
9 ACE TALENT A Badel · C Fownes
11 PHILOS Y L Chung · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. COUNTRY DANCER2. SAME TO YOU+0.2L3. WIND SPEEDER+0.2L4. PLENTIFUL+0.5L5. DAN ATTACK+0.75L6. RUBY SAILING+1.5L7. STRIVE FOR GLORY+2L8. TIMESTORM+2.25L9. MODEST GENTLEMAN+3.25L10. LIFE OF STONE+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick PLENTIFUL (26.8%) finished 4th — the winner COUNTRY DANCER was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 PLENTIFUL 26.8% 3.73 4
2 2 MODEST GENTLEMAN 14.3% 6.98 9
3 1 DAN ATTACK 14.0% 7.13 5
4 12 WIND SPEEDER 11.2% 8.96 3
5 4 RUBY SAILING 10.8% 9.26 6
6 8 TIMESTORM 8.0% 12.49 8
7 6 SAME TO YOU 6.3% 15.90 2
8 7 COUNTRY DANCER 5.5% 18.03 1
9 5 STRIVE FOR GLORY 1.9% 53.26 7
10 3 LIFE OF STONE 1.2% 86.86 10
PLENTIFULMODEST GENTLEMANDAN ATTACKWIND SPEEDERRUBY SAILINGTIMESTORMSAME TO YOUCOUNTRY DANCER — wonSTRIVE FOR GLORYLIFE OF STONE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 119.5

PLACE

6 54

7 36

12 19

QUINELLA

6,7 1,132.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 357.5

6,12 188.5

7,12 107.5

FORECAST

7,6 2,249

TIERCE

7,6,12 14,713

TRIO

6,7,12 2,198

FIRST 4

6,7,10,12 1,493

QUARTET

7,6,12,10 53,520

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

6/6 104

6/7 781